Tag: Olympic criteria

  • Where the Snow Hardens and Decisions Stick

    Where the Snow Hardens and Decisions Stick

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    Jonna Sundling (SWE) and Laura Gimmler (GER), (l-r) during the heats of the World Cup Freestyle Sprint in Oberhof (GER). (Photo: Authamayou/NordicFocus)

    By the time the stadium lights fully took over in Oberhof, the snow had begun to change its mind.

    What started as a pliable winter surface—the kind that both softens and creates mistakes—tightened as the temperature dropped, and each pass of a ski left a polished, glistening trail under the lit German night. The Thuringian Forest, quiet by geography but loud by reputation, had settled into one of those evenings that reward certainty. Edges held if you trusted them. Hesitation showed immediately. And in an Olympic season, there was very little room for either.

    Saturday’s women’s Freestyle Sprint marked the World Cup’s return after the Tour de Ski, but the pause had not dulled the stakes. For several nations—and particularly for the United States—Oberhof represented the final sprint in the window that matters most for Olympic selection. That context did not announce itself loudly. It rarely does. Instead, it threaded through the day in subtler ways: in heat selection, in how aggressively athletes protected space, and in the quiet tension between racing for today and building the version of yourself you’ll need in February.

    At the front, the results followed familiar lines. Jonna Sundling (SWE) qualified near the top and then won every round she entered, finishing the job decisively for her 15th individual World Cup victory. Coletta Rydzek (GER), fed by a home crowd that never stopped leaning forward, closed hard for second. Maja Dahlqvist (SWE) completed the podium in third, another entry in Sweden’s sprint abundance—a luxury that, paradoxically, can complicate Olympic selection rather than simplify it.

    But Oberhof was not only about dominance. It was about positioning, intent, and the quieter victories that occur well outside the top three—where a season can tilt not with a trophy, but with a single, well-timed decision in a quarterfinal.

    Hailey Swirbul (USA) take the first corner during her quarterfinal in Oberhof (GER). (Photo: Authamayou/NordicFocus)

    A Course That Punishes Drift

    Oberhof’s sprint course is deceptive in its simplicity: an out-and-back layout, one major climb, a technical descent, and a finishing stretch that arrives already under load. What separates it from more straightforward sprint venues is how early it demands decisions. The opening stretch funnels athletes into a tight corner almost immediately, compressing the field before it has a chance to stretch. The central climb—long, steep, and increasingly rutted and churned as the day progresses—forces skiers to declare themselves sooner than they might like.

    There is little room to hide here. Miss the first corner, and you’re fighting for oxygen before the race has found its rhythm. Drift into the wrong line on the climb, and the surface punishes you. Get boxed entering the final turn, and momentum disappears instantly. Oberhof rewards skiers who are decisive without being reckless, aggressive without being impatient.

    Those dynamics shaped the day for the Americans in distinctly different ways, producing four very different American stories inside the heats—plus one clarifying, unfortunate footnote that mattered for selection math and for morale: Alayna Sonnesyn (USA) did start, but crashed and did not finish.

    Jessie Diggins (USA) during qualification in the World Cup Freestyle Sprint in Oberhof (GER). (Photo: Authamayou/NordicFocus)

    Before the Racing: Compassion, and a Reminder Not to “Try Harder”

    On paper, the Olympic selection criteria reads like a legal document—because, in many ways, it is one. It is also, inevitably, a psychological environment: a room everyone lives in, even when no one speaks about it.

    U.S. Head Coach Matt Whitcomb described the team’s internal emphasis heading into Oberhof in terms that had nothing to do with points or spreadsheets.

    The first message, he said, was simple: have compassion—for yourself and for your teammates.

    “This is a stressful job,” Whitcomb said. Some athletes may feel safely “inside” the team; others may feel perched on the edge; others may already feel disappointment. And the team, he stressed, needs to remember that everyone is absorbing the same pressure in different ways. “Read the room,” he said, especially if you have a great race—take care of each other through a stressful period.

    His second point was the one that, in a sprint weekend like this, can save an athlete from the most common selection-week mistake: mistaking urgency for a new identity.

    Because “this may be one’s last opportunity,” Whitcomb said, it’s tempting to believe you can manufacture something extra—try harder, ski differently, do something dramatic. But that instinct is usually the trap.

    “You can’t try something dramatically different,” he said. “What you have to do… is you ski the way that got you here.”

    In Oberhof, Whitcomb felt the athletes largely did that. The plans were executed; warm-ups and routines stayed intact. “We qualified a bunch of people,” he said. The day simply didn’t convert into the results they wanted.

    That, too, is sprinting: sometimes you do many things right, and the course—plus the speed of the other nations—still asks for more.

    Jessie Diggins (USA) during qualification in the World Cup Freestyle Sprint in Oberhof (GER). (Photo: Authamayou/NordicFocus)

    Racing as Training: Jessie Diggins

    For Jessie Diggins (USA), Oberhof was never meant to stand alone.

    Coming off the Tour de Ski, Diggins framed this weekend not as a test of peak form, but as a carefully placed piece of a longer arc: racing as a training stimulus, not a destination.

    “Essentially, I’m using these races as training stimulus,” Diggins said. “It’s a chance to get more reps—working on the tactics, working on communication, just working on all the little things that you really can’t practice any other way unless you’re racing World Cup.”

    That philosophy has long guided Diggins’ career. She has rarely spoken about “peaking” the way outsiders want athletes to: as a clean line on a calendar, a simple on/off switch. For her, form is something you keep building in public, in the only environment where it truly exists—under the clock, in contact, with consequence.

    “So [I’m] keeping the training load really quite high,” she explained, “but just recovering enough that I can still punch some hard race efforts and have that be part of the training and the lead-up. And for me, that’s always been a really important thing.”

    She added a line that sounds like personal preference until you watch her career and realize it’s closer to a blueprint: “I think I race well when I am racing pretty often. I might not do every single race, but just enough that I feel like I’m using them as a really helpful part of my lead-up.”

    Diggins’ day ended in the quarterfinals—13th overall on the official results sheet. But that early exit doesn’t necessarily conflict with the way she described the weekend. In an Olympic season defined less by accumulation than timing, Diggins tends to measure progress in subtler signals than finish position: how quickly the body responds, how efficiently it recovers, whether the details are sharpening rather than dulling.

    Oberhof, in that sense, fits neatly into the plan. Not every race has to be a verdict. Some are simply data—hard efforts taken at speed, recorded by the body, filed away for February.

    Samantha Smith (USA) during qualification in the World Cup Freestyle Sprint in Oberhof (GER). (Photo: Authamayou/NordicFocus)

    A Wild Arc, Embraced: Samantha Smith

    If Diggins arrived in Oberhof as a veteran calibrating form, Samantha Smith (USA) arrived by a far less conventional route—one that still feels almost implausible when you say it out loud.

    The last couple of months, Smith said, have been “wild.” She helped Stanford reach the NCAA soccer final. She put her skis on for the first time this season in December. She raced into shape at U.S. Nationals. And suddenly, she was back on a World Cup start line—aware of the stakes, but determined not to let the stakes steal the experience.

    “I’m so grateful for the opportunities that I’ve had,” Smith said. “To have a chance to play for Stanford has been such an incredible journey… and now to be back skiing, it feels great to be out here and competing with everyone.”

    Smith kept returning to the same theme: presence. She likes the work itself—the daily process—whether it’s skis or soccer.

    “I really enjoy the process,” she said. “I love to train, I love to race, I love to play soccer games. So [I’ve] just been trying to focus on enjoying every moment… embracing the opportunities that I have and just trying to be very present.”

    That presence mattered on a day when nerves were unavoidable.

    “Coming in today, I was definitely nervous,” Smith said. “I feel like the first World Cup races of the year are a bit nerve-wracking, especially when you haven’t had a ton of time on snow or a ton of opportunities to really gauge fitness.”

    So she narrowed her goals to what she could actually execute: ski clean; work transitions; be diligent in the “working sections” where Oberhof can hand you time or take it away quietly.

    “I didn’t really have an outcome goal,” she said. “It was just to ski hard, do what I could, and if I got into heats, to really compete.”

    And then, in her quarterfinal, came the moment that extended her day—and changed, materially, what this weekend could mean.

    Smith described herself as not being in the position she wanted over the first big hill. She could see the risk: that the heat would compress into a pure sprint finish, where you either have the lane or you don’t. And then—briefly—she did.

    “Into the last climb before the finish, I saw a window on the inside,” Smith said. “I saw the space open up, and I just tried to take it. To be honest, I wasn’t really expecting that it was going to open up.”

    It did. She went. And she made the move that sprint racing requires: the one that looks obvious in replay and feels like a gamble in real time.

    “I was worried it was going to come down to a complete sprint finish at the end,” she said, “but I think I got pretty lucky… There was a bit of open space, and I was able to make my way up.”

    The reward was tangible: Smith advanced to the semifinals and finished 12th overall. Just as important—at least in the language of selection criteria—she also climbed to 42nd on the women’s Sprint World Cup standings after Oberhof.

    In a season where criteria can hinge on ranking thresholds, that is not a small detail. It is the kind that turns a good day into a consequential one.

    Whitcomb’s reaction captured the strange emotional geometry of selection weekends: elation, paired with an awareness that someone else is hurting.

    “We’re absolutely ecstatic with Sammy,” he said—and then, almost immediately, he acknowledged the other side of it: “It’s always bittersweet because on literally every race I’ve ever been to, there have been people that have good races and then people that are really disappointed.”

    In sprinting, the margins are often only a few meters. In Olympic selection, those meters can echo.

    Hailey Swirbul (USA) during qualification in the World Cup Freestyle Sprint in Oberhof (GER). (Photo: Authamayou/NordicFocus)

    Joy Without Illusion: Hailey Swirbul

    For Hailey Swirbul (USA), the day began with something rarer than confidence: uncomplicated joy.

    “I was genuinely excited just to be back racing and to make the rounds today,” Swirbul said. “It felt like a treat. Honestly, I wasn’t expecting it. I was hopeful that I might have that opportunity, but getting to be in the heats was really fun.”

    What stood out wasn’t that she smiled—it was why.

    “My smiles were genuine out there,” she said, “and I felt an excitement and joy to get to be part of it, rather than a fear or pressure… to live up to some expectation that I might set for myself.”

    Swirbul approached qualifying with a clear-eyed strategy built around her own technical history. She identified the steep jump-skating (V1) section that had dominated the day’s conversation and made a choice.

    “There’s a lot of pressure, a lot of expectation around that steep V1 hill in the middle of the course,” she said, “and that’s just historically not my strength… I felt like I was able to do the working sections well.”

    The plan worked. She advanced into the heats and finished 22nd overall.

    In the quarterfinal, the course delivered its blunt lesson: once you lose contact, you often don’t get it back.

    “I maybe tried to ski my own race a little too much,” Swirbul said. “Once you’re off the main pack, it’s really hard to get back on… I was excited to have a strong finish… but it’s just not enough at this level.”

    The sentence contains both honesty and optimism—because Swirbul wasn’t treating Saturday as an endpoint. She was treating it as preparation for what, in her case, may be the weekend’s more natural opportunity: Sunday’s 10-kilometer classic interval start.

    “I’m excited—really looking forward to the classic 10 k tomorrow,” she said. “I’ve had a couple of good ones this year, so [I] hope I can keep the momentum going.”

    And then she said something that explains why so many distance skiers quietly enjoy sprinting before a 10 k: it’s a way to wake the system up.

    “I do actually really like racing a sprint, especially a qualifier plus a quarter right before a 10 k,” she said. “I think that’s kind of ideal race prep for 10 k. So I’m hoping that can help power me through tomorrow’s race.”

    Swirbul’s mindset for Sunday, she said, would be built on a simple distinction: what she can control, and what she can’t.

    “Every course and every day has so many variables… out of my control,” she said. “So I just want to try to control what I can and do my best at those things.”

    It’s a professional skier’s sentence. It’s also, in an Olympic season, a survival skill.

    Lauren Jortberg (USA) during qualification in the World Cup Freestyle Sprint in Oberhof (GER). (Photo: Authamayou/NordicFocus)

    Boldness, Not Regret: Lauren Jortberg

    Lauren Jortberg (USA) did not set out to lead her quarterfinal. It happened anyway, fast and almost accidentally—the kind of start that changes your entire heat because it changes your options.

    “I took control early… wasn’t necessarily on purpose,” Jortberg said. “I just had a really fast start, and there’s a big corner right away, so I wanted to have good positioning there.”

    She connected that early positioning to what she sees as a strength: the major climbs. In Oberhof, you don’t get to drift into those climbs. You arrive either with space or without it.

    “I wanted… good positioning for the major climbs,” she said. “I feel like that’s one of my strengths.”

    Late in the heat, the day turned on a familiar sprint mechanism: contact and congestion at exactly the wrong time.

    “I got a bit of a tangle… into the final turn,” Jortberg said. “I lost all my speed there.”

    Importantly, she rejected the clean narrative that would blame her early assertiveness for the late cost.

    “I don’t necessarily think that leading… came at a cost,” she said. “I just think… I lost all my speed when we got tangled.”

    And then she said what, in an Olympic-selection sprint, many athletes think, but not all athletes will say out loud: she did not come to Oberhof to hide.

    “With the Olympic implications, I don’t really want to sit in the back and just chill,” Jortberg said. “That’s not really how I like to race heats.”

    She described her approach as an attempt to avoid the passive sprint fate: getting boxed in, stuck behind, hoping someone else would make a mistake.

    “I just really want to try to ski well,” she said. “At least [I] tried to move… and try to ski my best out there rather than just… getting boxed.”

    Jortberg finished 29th overall. But what she took from the day was not despair—it was proof of belonging.

    “A lot of my confidence is just knowing that I really can ski with these women who are really strong,” she said. “That’s important for confidence moving forward.”

    Even in a heat that didn’t break her way, she will leave Oberhof with something World Cup weekends can either confirm or erase: the belief that she belongs on this stage.

    Maja Dahlqvist (SWE), Jonna Sundling (SWE) and Iris De Martin Pinter (ITA), get set to start their semifinal in the Freestyle Sprint in Oberhof (GER). (Photo: Authamayou/NordicFocus)

    The Final, and the Moment That Changed It

    The women’s final unfolded at speed—and then, briefly, at the mercy of chance.

    Sundling drove the pace as expected, forcing the field into single-file. Dahlqvist tracked smoothly. Rydzek hovered, patient and dangerous. Behind them, Iris De Martin Pinter (ITA) skied with poise well beyond her years, positioned to contend.

    And then she wasn’t.

    De Martin Pinter fell, fracturing the race at the worst possible moment—the kind of incident sprinting produces with brutal efficiency. Sundling’s growing gap became decisive. In a course that rewards momentum and punishes disruption, the fall functioned like a door closing: abruptly, unfairly, and permanently.

    Sundling closed the remaining distance with authority. Rydzek surged for second. Dahlqvist held on for third.

    Jessie Diggins (USA), Hilla Niemela (FIN), Nicole Monsorno (ITA), Milla Andreassen (NOR), Samantha Smith (USA), Alina Meier (SUI), (l-r) come around the first corner of their quarterfinal. (Photo: Authamayou/NordicFocus)

    Skis, Speed, and the Truth You Can See on a Downhill

    No sprint weekend exists in a vacuum. Equipment matters, and in Oberhof, that reality was visible in the most unforgiving place: the downhills where small gaps become facts.

    Whitcomb, careful about specifics because he had not yet been fully able to review the race video, acknowledged what many observers sensed: the U.S. skis were close, but not quite at the level of the very best nations on the day.

    “I think that’s a safe and fair assessment,” Whitcomb said. He emphasized that the team was competitive—but in sprinting, “competitive” is often not enough.

    “You need the best skis to go up against other teams that have the best skis,” he said, citing nations that, on this day, appeared to have exceptional speed.

    It’s the part of sprinting that can feel cruelest to athletes: you can execute your plan, hit your cues, make good tactical decisions—and still watch a gap open on a downhill you skied correctly. In Oberhof, where the course magnifies drift, ski speed is not a luxury. It is oxygen.

    Samantha Smith (USA) for the first time advanced into the semifinals in the World Cup sprint in Oberhof (GER). (Photo: Authamayou/NordicFocus)

    Selection Without Ceremony

    For the United States, day one in Oberhof didn’t resolve Olympic selection questions. It narrowed them.

    U.S. Ski & Snowboard’s selection language ties nomination, in part, to World Cup standings thresholds, with specific mention of Top 50 (or Top 45 under certain conditions) in the Sprint or Distance World Cup standings on January 18, 2026.

    Inside that structure, Saturday’s most significant American movement belonged to Smith.

    With her semifinal, she, in just one World Cup race, vaulted to 42nd in the Sprint World Cup standings. That is the kind of number that changes the texture of a season, because it moves her into the zone where the objective criteria has been met.

    The other Americans’ days mattered in quieter ways. Diggins stayed on her February-focused arc, treating racing as stimulus and sharpening. Swirbul used the sprint as both a joyful return to the rounds and a deliberate set-up for Sunday’s classic 10k, a race she believes suits her. Jortberg confirmed her willingness to race with intent rather than hide from consequence, even when the margin for error is razor-thin.

    And Sonnesyn’s crash—real, abrupt, and emotionally expensive—served as a reminder that selection seasons do not always give you clean data. Sometimes they give you a fall, a DNF, and the long work of resetting.

    Jonna Sundling (SWE) comes to the line for the win in the finals. (Photo: Authamayou/NordicFocus)

    What Remains

    By nightfall, the snow had hardened completely. The course no longer absorbed uncertainty. It reflected it.

    Some athletes left with podiums. Others left with confirmation, calibration, or unfinished business. In an Olympic winter, not every race is meant to answer questions outright. Some exist to refine them—to strip them down to what actually matters.

    Whitcomb’s framing, in that light, felt less like a coach’s speech and more like a survival manual for the next month: be compassionate; don’t weaponize the criteria against each other; and when the moment arrives, resist the temptation to become someone new out of panic.

    You can’t “try harder” into an Olympic team. You can only ski the way that got you here—cleanly, boldly, and with enough self-trust to hold your line when the window opens.

    In Oberhof, Samantha Smith did exactly that. And for one night in the German cold, that single choice—one inside lane, one late move—was the difference between a good day and a consequential one.

    Women’s Freestyle Sprint Qualification RESULTS

    Women’s Freestyle Sprint Final RESULTS

    Women’s FIS World Cup OVERALL SPRINT STANDINGS

     

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    Coletta Rydzek (GER), Jonna Sundling (SWE), and Maja Dahlqvist (SWE), (l-r) share the sprint podium in Oberhof (GER). (Photo: Authamayou/NordicFocus)
  • Canada’s Olympic Cross Country Team: Who’s In, Who’s Close, and What Comes Next

    Canada’s Olympic Cross Country Team: Who’s In, Who’s Close, and What Comes Next

    Alex Harvey (4) climbing in the classic leg of the Olympic 30 k skiathlon in 2014, where he placed 18th. Harvey and four other men have met Primary Qualification Criteria for the 2018 Olympics.

    As athletes enter their final preparations for the Olympic season, some Canadian cross-country skiers have a pretty good idea that they’ll be heading to PyeongChang, South Korea, in February to compete.

    That’s because they have already achieved nomination objectives that will put them on the final ranking list from which the team will be picked. If more than 12 athletes – the maximum team size – meet criteria, then a second selection process will proceed to pick only the top-ranked athletes.

    “If you had too many people, you’ve got to rank them on their best results and the team could be full,” Cross Country Canada High Performance Director Tom Holland said in an interview. “But that’s not likely to happen.”

    In other words: six men and two women can feel pretty safe that they are heading to PyeongChang.

    Other details of the Olympic team selection process are still unpublished. The location, dates, and formats of the final Olympic Trials races are being discussed, but have not been finalized. Those competitions will be used to bring the roster up to 11 or 12 athletes – with a minimum of four athletes of each gender – if that isn’t accomplished on the World Cup.

    “We have to do an amendment to this criteria for final qualifying in Canada, which will be in January,” Holland said. “That piece isn’t complete yet. That’s something I have to send out to the committee and work those details through… With the men we’ve almost met the max, and we could probably only take one more. Whereas with the women, we’ll probably taking at least five, [so] there’s at least three more spots for women.”

    Who’s (Most Likely) In

    Several athletes have already met the “Primary Qualifying Criteria”. That group is headlined by Alex Harvey, who won his first individual World Championships gold medal last season in the 50 k in Lahti, Finland.

    There are several ways to meet the primary criteria, all at World Cup or World Championships races. All consider, for scoring, only the first four finishers from each country – for example, removing the fifth (or higher) Norwegian athlete on the results list and moving everyone else up accordingly. For purposes of brevity, this will be called “Olympic-style scoring” for the rest of this piece.

    The men’s freestyle team sprint podium on Sunday, Jan. 15 in Toblach, Italy, with Canada’s Alex Harvey and Len Valjas (c) in first, Sweden’s Oskar Svensson and Karl-Johan Westberg in second (l), and Italy’s Federico Pellegrino and Dietmar Noeckler in third (r). (Photo: Fischer/Nordic Focus)

    With that scoring metric, sprinters must achieve one top-6 result or two top-16 results to make the list. In distance races, athletes with one top-12 or two top-16 results, or two results with FIS points under 10, make the list. Members of a podium relay or team sprint effort will all make the list. And, in a special nod to the disciplines which will be contested at the Olympics, an athlete with a top-16 distance result and a top-16 classic sprint result will make the list.

    Harvey meets most of those requirements individually. Thanks to Canada’s third-place relay in Ulricehamn, Sweden, Devon Kershaw, Knute Johnsgaard, and Len Valjas join him on the nomination list.

    Of the group of four, Valjas is the only athlete other than Harvey who has also met the individual standards and would have qualified without the relay result (or a team sprint win with Harvey in Toblach, Italy), thanks to sprint results of 13th in Lillehammer, Norway; 14th in Davos, Switzerland; 16th in Val Mustair, Switzerland; 10th in Falun, Sweden; and fourth in PyeongChang, South Korea.

    Jesse Cockney has also met the individual nomination standards by finishing 10th in World Cup sprints in both PyeongChang, South Korea, and Quebec City, Canada.

    “So there’s [five] athletes that have met those criteria,” Holland said. “And then we move onto what’s called an ‘Alternate Qualifying Criteria A.’ In this criteria, they have to be three times in the top 30.”

    Alternate A, or Next On The List

    A number of athletes have met this next set of criteria.

    Dahria Beatty finished 25th in the sprint in Davos, 26th in the 10 k mass start in La Clusaz, France, and 29th in the sprint in Otepaa, Estonia.

    Dahria Beatty is currently atop the women’s Olympic qualification list with three top-30 World Cup results last season. (Photo: Fischer/Nordic Focus)

    Graeme Killick finished 21st in the 30 k skate in Davos. He also had a few near-top-30’s which, with Olympic-style scoring, turn into top-30’s: 33rd in the 10 k mass start in Val Mustair, 32nd in the 15 k mass start in Val di Fiemme, Italy, and 32nd again in the same event in Quebec City.

    And Emily Nishikawa did it with finishes of 39th in the Lillhammer 10 k, 34th in Davos, and 37th in the Quebec City mass start, all of which are top-30’s with Olympic-style scoring.

    For these athletes, selection is not guaranteed. If more skiers meet the “Primary Qualifying Criteria” in December and January World Cups, they would get preference and those who only met “Alternate Qualifying Criteria” would get bumped down.

    Holland doesn’t envision that happening, though.

    “There’s nobody that skied at that level,” he said of the possibility that an athlete not already mentioned would pop a top-six or top-16 World Cup result in December. “If you haven’t done it once last year, it’s going to be hard to do it… But it’s not impossible.”

    There are several athletes who are on their way to meeting the “Alternate Qualifying Criteria A,” leaving open the possibility that the list of athletes meeting those requirements would be long enough that it would have to be winnowed down by ranking athletes according to their best results.

    Cendrine Browne finished 26th in the World Championships mass start 30 k. She also placed 35th in the 10 k skate in Ulricehamn, a result which turns into a top-30 with Olympic-style scoring.

    Julien Locke placed 20th in the sprint in Quebec City, and Bob Thompson placed 30th.

    (Thompson also placed 31st in PyeongChang, South Korea, a result which would be top-30 with Olympic-style scoring; several other Canadian athletes also finished in the top 30 that weekend. But their results won’t count towards Olympic qualification due to a depth-of-field calculation explained in a separate article.)

    So the list of athletes meeting “Alternate Qualifying Criteria A” could grow.

    “We have men that have top-30 World Cup sprints, so they could do it,” Holland said. “But I don’t expect on the women’s side [other than Browne] — we don’t have anybody that’s done any, so [for them] it’s going to be hard to do it three times.”

    Access to Points Races

    A fair number of athletes will have opportunities to work on qualifying criteria this winter, as Canada is planning to send a full team to Period I.

    Graeme Killick used the Tour de Ski to hit Olympic qualification criteria. (Photo: Fischer/NordicFocus)

    “We don’t want to take more than 12 [athletes],” Holland said. “That’s seems to be the magic number for us, because we know we can support that. So we are going to take at least four women and seven or eight men.”

    That’s the biggest chance athletes will get to avoid a nerve-wracking trip to Olympic Trials. While the selection document states that the qualifying period goes through January 21, in reality all of the World Cup-based qualifying will be done by Christmas.

    That is because the Canadian team only takes a small squad to the Tour de Ski, the first set of World Cups after Christmas. The selection criteria for 2017-2018 national team trips has not yet been posted on the CCC website, but in the 2016-2017 season, athletes had to achieve one top-12, two top-20s, or three top-30s in Period I in order to head to the Tour de Ski.

    In other words, anyone objectively qualifying for the Tour de Ski will have met some Olympic nomination criteria already.

    There is a way to reach the Tour without those top results – according to the criteria, athletes could be added to the team by discretion if they had scored World Cup points. In other words, for athletes with one or two top-30 finishes, it is up to coaching staff whether they would be brought along or not.

    Killick competed in the Tour de Ski last season through this mechanism – he had a lone top-30 result in Period I. Then he collected two more Olympic-style scoring top-30’s at the Tour de Ski.

    Those were the results that allowed Killick to meet the Olympic nomination criteria through “Alternative Qualifying Criteria A”, but this year, athletes in a similar position might not be so lucky.

    First of all, the Olympic Trials races are likely to be scheduled at roughly the same time – “around January 6th to 10th,” Holland said. So athletes would have to choose whether to risk a trip to the Tour de Ski, versus closing things out at Olympic Trials.

    And secondly, the Tour vs. Olympic Trials decision may not even be a choice. Holland indicated that if an athlete were close to qualifying but had not yet met the Tour de Ski standard – which could be very possible since last year’s Tour de Ski criteria specified World Cup points, not the adjusted, four-athletes-per-country scoring of the Olympic selection – they would not be offered the chance to finish things off in Europe.

    “We’re not going to take a whole pile of people to the Tour de Ski to try to qualify,” Holland said. “It’s better to do it in Canada head to head.”

    And so, although the selection document states that qualifying can be done through January 21st, Holland did not seem to consider the Tour de Ski or post-Tour World Cups in Dresden, Germany, and Planica, Slovenia, when discussing how athletes can qualify.

    “By the 10th [of January] you want to have your team picked,” he said. “You want to have your logistics, ideally you want that whole team to go to the Seefeld World Cup [January 27-28], and move to PyeongChang and get them in their training mode for the Games.”

    The Rest of the Process

    That means that for at least a few woman and perhaps one or two men, it will come down to the Trials races that Holland says will be held at Mont Sainte Anne.

    “We’re probably only looking for one man,” Holland said of the number of athletes that would be selected from those races. “We’ve had men who have scored World Cup points in sprint but not distance so odds are we’ll be looking for a sprinter. On the women’s side, it depends what happens on the World Cup. Cendrine Browne two out of three [top-30’s] so she could make that criteria in December. So on the women’s side it’s a little more open. I think we’re looking for both sprint and distance athletes, and if Cendrine makes it in December we’d only be looking at two women.”

    After that, selected athletes will refocus and begin preparing for their Olympic experience.

    “After the Tour de Ski, we’re going to skip the next two World Cup weekends,” Holland said of the team’s top athletes. “Then they’ll be training at altitude, probably in Livigno for the most part, and then they’ll go to the World Cup in Seefeld [Austria] with the whole Olympic team. The ones that come from Canada might just come over prior to Seefeld and spend some time in Davos [Switzerland], or something like that.”

     

  • Navigating Depth-of-Field at the PyeongChang World Cup for Canadian Olympic Qualification

    Navigating Depth-of-Field at the PyeongChang World Cup for Canadian Olympic Qualification

    Canada’s Jesse Cockney (r) racing to first in his quarterfinal in the men’s classic sprint at the PyeongChang World Cup, while leading Norway’s Mathias Rundgreen and Daniel Stock. Cockney finished tenth on the day and the result was one of two which has put him on the shortlist for Canada’s Olympic team. (Photo: Fischer/NordicFocus)

    As Cross Country Canada (CCC) looks at which athletes have made progress on qualifying for the 2018 Olympics in PyeongChang, South Korea, listing those with top-30 World Cup finishes is a good place to start.

    But there are a few athletes with those results that don’t come up in conversation.

    Simon Lapointe finished 27th in the sprint and Bob Thompson 31st in the World Cup sprint in PyeongChang, South Korea last season – a result that would be bumped up top top-30 status if the Olympic-style scoring employed by CCC for selection, which counts only the top four athletes from each country, removed “extra” Russians from the results.

    Paralympic legend Brian McKeever finished 29th in the skiathlon in PyeongChang. And for the women, Annika Hicks and Sadie White finished 26th and 29th (out of 29) in the skiathlon, and 32nd and 34th in the sprint (in a field of 36) — which with Olympic-style scoring would become top-30 finishes.

    By a provision in CCC’s criteria, these results won’t count towards nomination to the Olympic team.

    “In order to maintain equity and fairness in this selection process, the HPC reserves the right to exclude, or to count only partially, the results of any World Cup event with a weak depth of field,” the criteria state. “The CCC Selection Committee will be charged with evaluating the depth of field in this circumstance based on comparative analysis of World Cups over two seasons (2015-16 and 2016-17). The CCC Selection Committee will bring forth to the HPC any such recommendation to exclude, in whole or part, a World Cup event. This analysis of depth of field will consider time behind the winner (FIS points), an analysis of the top 6, top 12 and top 16 individual athletes or team events in the race based on World Cup ranking, World Cup points, total FIS points of athletes in the race and any other factors that allow for a fair and equitable World Cup depth of field analysis.”

    With such a criteria, it’s fairly clear that finishing last in a World Cup race with only 30 athletes would not count towards Olympic qualification.

    But in terms of determining what would count, how CCC actually analyzes race results is multifaceted and not entirely transparent.

    “It is always best to look at as many data factors as possible when analyzing depth of field – weak depth of field can vary at the same World Cup event depending on gender and type of race,” CCC High Performance Director Tom Holland wrote in an email.

    He emphasized that the depth-of-field assessment is rarely used, citing PyeongChang as the only set of World Cups in the last Olympic cycle where results had been excluded for team qualification.

    What Results Count as Competitive

    Holland and the selection committee looked at different slices of the PyeongChang results. There are multiple ways to meet Olympic qualifying criteria: a top-six sprint result, a top-12 distance result, two top-16 World Cup results (all deemed “Primary Qualification Criteria”), or three top-30 World Cup results (deemed “Alternative Qualification Criteria”). The level of competition at each of these results cutoffs was considered.

    And according to Holland, the men’s races were competitive at the top end but not in the middle or bottom of the fields. That’s why Jesse Cockney, who finished 10th in the PyeongChang sprint, can count that as one of his two top-16 finishes and meet CCC nomination criteria – but Thompson, for instance, can’t count the result as his second of three top-30’s.

    (Thompson finished 30th in the World Cup Finals sprint in Quebec City in March, and now needs two more top-30’s for a shot at making the Olympics.)

    “What would be looked at varies between the Primary and Alternate A Criteria,” Holland wrote. “For the Primary Qualifying Criteria, the depth of field analysis being considered is top 6–16; World Cup ranking of athletes, particularly the number of red group athletes in the race would be the critical starting point of analysis, next would be time behind these athletes compared to similar placing in other [World Cup] events.

    “For the Alternate A Criteria, we are only looking at top 30 results counting top 4 per nation,” he continued. “The average top 30 [World Cup] FIS points over the past 2 seasons in that particular race distance per gender is a good indicator to start the analysis. Being in top half of the field (usually, but not always) and the number of top 30 ranked athletes in the race also need to be considered.”

    When asked whether it was appropriate to apply a depth-of-field adjustment differently within the results of the same individual race, the Canadian Olympic Committee (COC) declined to address the specific situation.

    “The COC provides national sport federations with a Guide to Drafting Internal Nomination Procedures (INP), which offers a framework, practical advice, and examples they can use in their drafting, interpretation, and implementation of their INP,” COC Manager for Corporate Communications Ricky Landry wrote in an email.

    “The COC then reviews all INPs to ensure that they comply with the COC Team Selection Policy, the Olympic Charter and other applicable COC rules and policies. Also, the COC reviews INPs to ensure the qualification and nomination timelines fall within COC and Organizing Committee (OCOG) deadlines. In general terms, the COC Team Selection Policy recognizes the NSF’s authority in setting qualification criteria appropriate for its sport and in determining which athletes and support personnel will be nominated to the COC Team Selection Committee for selection to the Canadian Olympic Team.”

    End result: for Lapointe, Thompson, and McKeever, their results were not enough to count towards Alternate Qualification Criteria. For Cockney, 10th was good enough for Primary Qualification Criteria.

    “I’ve got the spreadsheet… there were only nine out of the top 30 sprint group [on the start line] at that event,” Holland said in an interview earlier this summer. “So the depth of field and if you look at FIS points, it wasn’t there. But if you look at the top 10, it’s a little more legitimate.”

    There were only seven seeded World Cup sprinters on the start line in PyeongChang. All of them bested Cockney in qualification but he beat two of them, Baptiste Gros of France and Simi Hamilton of the United States, in the final results.

    That might be important, as Holland indicated that qualification versus heats racing were not necessarily considered in the same way.

    “If an athlete does well in the heats, I would be inclined to put more emphasis on the heats,” he wrote.

    Transparency and Athlete Expectations

    While it was clear to all that the depth of field in PyeongChang would be looked at carefully – Canada was not bringing most of its top athletes, and neither were other countries – the outcome of that analysis wasn’t known.

    That marks a major difference from this aspect of the criteria to the rest of CCC’s criteria. It’s fairly clear what athletes have to do to meet World Cup-based criteria: they have to hit certain results, and after a race they can look at the results sheet and immediately know whether they can check that box or not.

    At the end of that process, any remaining spots on the roster will be filled at Olympic Trials. Again, there it will be clear what finish is required to be named to the team.

    Going into the PyeongChang World Cups, athletes knew that a top-30 might not cut it, but what exactly they would have to do to have a result count towards Olympic qualification was unclear.

    “A lot of people didn’t go, so I believe they only counted a top 20 result,” Thompson said in an interview last week. “But I didn’t know that. There was a little bit of awareness that you had to do better than top 30, like maybe making the top 12 would be more respected.”

    Likewise, because the method of assessing depth-of-field is not a single mathematical formula that is evenly applied, even glancing at the results after a race may not make clear which athletes in the field had attained qualification standards and which hadn’t.

    “In the last few years, I haven’t paid so much attention to what selection criteria is worth in terms of specific scenarios,” Cockney said in an interview this week. “It’s not usually up to us what is deemed a usable race or a competitive race… I can’t decide who the competition is. I can just decide to ski. That’s the attitude I was taking in Korea – just to try to do my best and have a strong day, and thankfully I was able to put together a good day.”

    That’s just part of the game, Holland seemed to suggest, saying in an interview that athletes “should have been aware” that normal qualification standards wouldn’t apply before even leaving on the trip to South Korea.