Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that Torin Koos and Dakota Blackhorse-von Jess had been granted World Cup starts by the US Ski Team. At this point, neither athlete has earned a World Cup start.
The 2014 race season has arrived, and with it, the start of SuperTour racing. The SuperTour is the United States’ Continental Cup series, and is not only the highest level of competition in the country, but also the best way to fast-track to the World Cup.
As usual, the series kicks off in West Yellowstone, Mont., and skiers will be racing towards several different goals. SuperTour rankings and prize money will be on the line, of course, but the SuperTour leaders after the first period of racing will also have the opportunity to race the World Cup races in January. Additionally, for those skiers ‘on the bubble’ of making the Olympic team, the SuperTour races provide valuable chances to lower FIS points.
Olympic team selection will be based on several criteria. Those skiers ranked in the top 50 in the World Cup sprint or distance standings as of January 12 will be named to the team (with a limit of four skiers per gender to be named off of the sprint list). After that, coaches’ discretion kicks in. Skiers not in Europe need to find a way to turn some heads if they are gunning for Sochi.
While racing well domestically certainly doesn’t hurt, the best way to to punch a ticket to the Games is to get to Europe and post strong results against the world’s best, and leading one of the three SuperTour categories at the end of Period I is the best option.
Sadie Bjornsen of APU/USST (r) edges Sophie Caldwell (l) and Jennie Bender (c) in the 1.3 k freestyle sprint final at U.S. Nationals last season at Soldier Hollow in Midway, Utah. Caldwell (SMST2) was second and Bender (formerly of CXC, now with BSF) placed third.
This year’s SuperTour schedule has some significant changes from previous seasons. The Minneapolis, Aspen and Madison SuperTours have been dropped from the schedule, and there will be an inaugural SuperTour weekend in Craftsbury, Vt.
Overall, the number of events has shrunk from nine locations and 24 races to seven locations and 20 races. Additionally, points awarded at the American Birkebeiner will only be half the usual point totals. The idea behind this strategy is to not unduly punish those racers avoiding the long length of the Birkebeiner in order to race optimally in Europe in March.
Key Contenders
The first period of SuperTour racing will have several key players missing. The U.S. Ski Team (USST) will be in Europe, and last year’s SuperTour leaders will be racing the World Cups (with many expenses covered per FIS rules) in an attempt to improve their World Cup rankings and thus the possibility of Olympic Team selection.
These racers include men’s sprint and overall leader Mikey Sinnott, of the Sun Valley Ski Education Foundation (SVSEF), and women’s sprint, distance and overall leader Rosie Brennan, of Alaska Pacific University (APU).
SuperTour distance leader Erik Bjornsen (APU/USST) opted out of those starts in favor of racing stateside. Additionally, Torin Koos, of the Bridger Ski Foundation (BSF) and Dakota Blackhorse-von Jess, of the Bend Endurance Academy (BEA) are in Europe and are hoping to earn World Cup starts rights with strong performances on that side of the pond.
Additionally, longtime SuperTour force Mark Iverson, formerly of APU, has stepped back from elite racing. His former teammate, Brent Knight, continues to represent APU, but is also a member of the Salomon Mountain Running Team, which will be his focus.
Kate Fitzgerald (APU) racing the West Yellowstone SuperTour in 2012.
Despite these racers missing, the fields will still be plenty deep.
On the women’s side, the veteran trio of APU skiers Kate Fitzgerald, Becca Rorabaugh and Lauren Fritz will all be looking to make an impact. Caitlin Gregg, newly of Loppet Nordic Racing (LNR), Caitlin Patterson, of the Craftsbury Green Racing Project (CGRP), and Jennie Bender (BSF) are all very strong contenders to lead the first period of racing. However, some of the newer skiers to the full-time race circuit will be in the mix.
New and notable skiers to the professional racing scene will be Annie Pokorny (SMST2), who is taking time off from Middlebury College to pursue skiing; Elizabeth Guiney (CGRP), a recent UNH graduate and member of last year’s U23 World Championships team; and Rose Kemp (SVSEF), who joined the Gold Team this year after a strong collegiate career at the University of Utah.
The men’s side will be equally as strong. Look for APU skier Reese Hanneman to lead the pack along with at least three guys from Ski & Snowboard Club Vail/Team HomeGrown: Sylvan Ellefson, Ryan Scott and Tad Elliott. Matt Liebsch (XC United), Brian Gregg (LNR), and Skyler Davis (SMST2) should also be battling at the top of the result sheet.
Notable rookies to the full-time circuit include former collegiate standouts Miles Havlick, a two-time NCAA champion with Utah now with SVSEF, and Sam Tarling, an NCAA champ and Dartmouth grad who joined the Maine Winter Sports Center (MWSC) this year.
While the focus is obviously on the Olympics, no more than a few domestic racers are likely to join the U.S. squad.
Everyone else needs to keep long-term goals in sight. If Period I leaders head to Europe, the doors open for another set of athletes to take over the top spots, and earn their own World Cup experience. This can be critical for long term development, and potential USST nominations.
Holly Brooks (APU/USST) is the best example of a stateside racer leveraging SuperTour success into a World Cup career. After winning the overall SuperTour title in 2011, Brooks, now 31, began the next season in Europe and raced so fast, she not only earned additional start spots, but ended up on the national team.
Sylvan Ellefson (SSCV Team Homegrown) racing at the Quebec City World Cup sprints last season will be gunning to return to the big stage.
And while it is only November, the early season SuperTour races often boast the strongest fields this side of SuperTour Finals in March. As the season progresses, and more athletes race overseas or focus their energy on preparing for specific events, the talent in the U.S. can drop somewhat. As a result, racing over the next few weeks should be intense — for the top skiers, there is no time to ease into the season.
Prize money is also not inconsequential for athletes, who are usually operating on a very tight budget. A top placing can cover a good portion of travel costs, and every place makes a difference.
In West Yellowstone, prize money is as follows:
1st: $750
2nd: $500
3rd: $250
4th: $200
5th: $150
6th: $100
U.S. Cross Country Championships in January remain the focus of the domestic calendar, with five events back at Soldier Hollow in Midway, Utah. In addition to both a classic and skate sprint, there will be a 10/15 k classic individual start and a 20/30 k skate mass start.
As usual, the SuperTour wraps up with SuperTour finals, which will be in Anchorage, Alaska. The Finals are coupled with the 30/50 k U.S. Distance Nationals and will feature the return of the relay format.
The Finals will not be a mini-tour, and thus there will be no hill climb, a break from the format initiated in Maine in 2010.
FasterSkier’s coverage of the 2013 FIS Nordic World Ski Championships in Val di Fiemme, Italy, is brought to you by the generous support of Fischer Sports.
Sometimes dreams do come true, and for those who fall asleep at night with visions of World Championship medals dancing through their heads, there will be 62 such pieces of hardware available over the next week and a half.
And who can say if the first or the fifteenth time standing on the podium at the bi-annual Championships is more fulfilling? Actually, Marit Bjørgen could tell you in a few days.
But what of the dreams of a team and a nation? For Norway, a single medal would be disaster. For the United States it would be a triumph. On the eve of the 2013 World Championships, we take a look at what would make a true fairy tale ending for the biggest players.
Norway
The Norwegian ski world revolves around two people — the aforementioned Bjørgen, and her male partner in medal-winning prowess, Petter Northug. Success or failure at the Championships will come down to these individuals.
The Fairy Tale
Bjørgen, bedecked in red, overcomes the wolf that is Justyna Kowalczyk, and repeats her performance from Oslo two years ago — four golds and a silver. Northug, for his part, as the huntsman, slays the Russian bears and also returns with a pile of medals.
Will it Happen?
It is highly unlikely that the Norwegians will recapture the magic of Oslo. In the two races that Bjørgen and and Northug did not start, their teammates racked up a silver and two bronzes, as well as another gold and bronze over the duration.
Both Bjørgen and Northug have not been quite at the top of their respective games of late. Bjørgen had a setback with a false alarm regarding her heart, while Northug has not dominated an event in some time.
But he is the ultimate big race skier, and despite missing some time, Bjørgen has won all but one World Cup start this season (she was second in that other one).
Therese Johaug is skiing fast, and the women should dominate the relay. It may not be a perfect “happily ever after,” but the women should be their usual force, and Northug will do his part, and the country of Norway can drift happily off to sleep as the book is closed.
Poland
More accurately this should be labeled “Justyna Kowalczyk.” Her rivalry with Bjørgen is well-documented, and the big question is whether or not she can avenge 2011. The de facto owner of the Tour de Ski title at this point, Kowalczyk finished one place behind Bjørgen in all three individual distance races in Oslo, including a heartbreaker in the 10km classic where Bjørgen made up nine seconds in the last few kilometers to take the win.
The Fairy Tale
Kowalczyk is visited by her fairy godmother — or is that just Elena Vaelbe out for a stroll in her princess gown? — and is the belle of the ball, dominating Bjørgen and heading home with no less than three gold medals.
Will it Happen?
It takes little imagination to picture Kowalczyk leaving Italy with her version of Prince Charming — solid gold. Despite the blip in Sochi, where she struggled in the sprint and dropped out of the pursuit, she appears in top form.
The Fiemme courses, with steep climbs, should suit her well, and the line-up, with a classic sprint, and a classic 30k, plays to her strengths. The 10k freestyle may not be her cup of tea, but anyone who watched her this past weekend in Davos, gapping the field, including Bjørgen, in the sprint, knows no evil step-mother will hold her back.
Switzerland
While the Swiss are not the proverbial one-trick pony like Poland, with a variety of talented skiers, the show still boils down to Cologna, and not Gianluca, but the Dario variety.
If Kowalczyk was disappointed in Oslo, imagine how Super Dario felt? Recognized as one of the best on the circuit, with credentials including three each of World Cup overall titles and Tour de Ski victories, his best result at the 2011 Worlds was 9th in the sprint. He never did better than 20th in the distance races.
The Fairy Tale
Cologna goes from the Beast in 2011 to the handsome prince he more readily resembles, winning multiples medals in the distance races. His teammates rise to the occasion, and the men’s relay team cracks the top-5.
Will it Happen?
The Swiss admittedly struggled with ski preparation in Oslo, and have made changes. Cologna has been his usual consistently strong self. It should be noted, however, that historically he has earned his big titles — the overall World Cup and the Tour de Ski — without winning large numbers of races.
But he is on a mission, and should make it to The End with a smile on his face.
Russia
By most measures, the Russians had success in 2011, with Maxim Vylegzhanin winning two silvers and Ilia Chernousov gaining a bronze. On the sprint side the team captured another bronze in the team event.
But silver and bronze is not gold, and Alexander Legkov’s epic collapse in the relay on Norwegian snow, left a bad taste for the motherland.
The Fairy Tale
Legkov plays Jack to Northug’s Giant, and succeeds in toppling the Norwegian beanstalk. The usual crew is on top form as well, both on the distance and sprint side. The Russians win the men’s relay, and a heap of other medals. The men have the depth and talent to replicate Norway’s performance of two years ago.
The women could add to the magic with a medal in the sprint, but no more.
Will it Happen
It certainly could, though likely not to such a degree. But Legkov dethroned Cologna in the 2013 Tour de Ski, and the sprint squad is stacked as always. The gold may not rain down, but should sprinkle.
Canada
Oh Canada. They are so good, but it never seems easy.
Harvey injured his shoulder in a training crash, and missed some race time, and Kershaw has had a rough season, just recently beginning to show signs of his 2012 form.
Ivan Babikov dropped out of the distance race in Davos just a few days ago as he recovers from a cold.
Lenny Valjas is arguably the best skier on the team right now, which is no slight to anyone given his results, but being in the running for medals will not satisfy this bunch.
The Fairy Tale
More than anyone else, the Canadian men’s team seems to nail peaks for the biggest events. The 2010 Olympics, the 2011 World Championships — the swan is made even more beautiful given just how ugly the preceding duckling is.
Slow starts to the season, and grim results before the big races conspire to create stunning turn arounds.
So it would be no fantasy to the see the squad glide off with top results and a medal or two.
The crowning feather would be the 4×10 relay. With Valjas reaching heights that former fourth man George Gray only aspired to, the team has the theoretical chops — though who can forget the controversy surrounding Harvey’s decision to skip the event in 2011. If he takes a pass again, the team goes from contender to not even pretender.
If Han Christian Anderson were penning the results, the Canadian men would medal in the relay and take an individual honor or two while Perianne Jones and Dasha Gaiazova team up for podium in the “anything can happen” event that is the team sprint.
Will it Happen?
There are just too many questions. Kershaw is clearly still capable of being one of the best, but he hasn’t shown it yet this season. Harvey and Valjas are true talents, but the former has had issues closing out mass start events, and the formats do not favor the a later — with the notable exception of the classic sprint.
Babikov is solid as always, but his lack of sprinting chops means his best hope is the relay or the 15k.
And with Chandra Crawford retiring for the season, the women will be hard-pressed to challenge for the podium. Gaiazova and Jones are more than capable in the team sprint, but chances would be better if it were classic.
There is too much talent here for this tale to end in darkness. Valjas has the best hope in the sprint, but the Sochi Olympics may be the big one for this group.
U.S.A.
What a difference two years can make. In 2011 Kikkan Randall entered the Championships as the favorite in the skate sprint. A crash in the quarterfinals ended her day, and while her teammates skied very well throughout, they were still gaining experience and fitness.
Fast forward, and the U.S. women are sitting in fourth in the season-long Nations Cup standings, with a deep, versatile and talented group.
The Fairy Tale
The U.S. has made a mark, not just on the result sheet, but with their relaxed, fun-loving attitude away from the race course. The specter, or perhaps witch, of more than a decade of U.S. mediocrity, that was on it’s way out four years ago when Randall won her World Championship silver, will be kicked head first into the oven fired by medals in both the 4x5km and team sprints, driven forward by a striped stocking-clad foot.
Her charred bones will likely have traces of glitter and the United States will officially move from also-ran to true powerhouse.
On the men’s side, Andy Newell becomes Prince Charming in the truest sense, and is the biggest story when he finally breaks through to the podium on the biggest stage in the sprint.
Will it Happen?
It certainly could. The women have a relay podium this season, though beating Norway is not going to happen, and Sweden, with Charlotte Kalla anchoring, will be tough to overcome. That leaves little room for error, but the talent is there.
In the team sprint, you could pair the earlier mentioned Vaelbe with Kikkan Randall in this skate event and a medal would be a possibility. The hardest thing will be deciding who else gets to race. Both Jessie Diggins and Sadie Bjornsen have been on the World Cup podium with Randall, and Ida Sargent has settled in as a legitimate World Cup sprinter.
Holly Brooks has the speed/distance combo, and don’t forget that Liz Stephen has had success in this event as well. Good money is on Diggins, and amedal for the U.S.
Newell is more than a long shot, but he is second in the Sprint Cup, and has seemed oh so close of late.
Everyone Else
There are plenty more teams that could listed here, including Sweden, host Italy, the Germans and Great Britain with Andrew Musgrave. Regardless of whether the above stories come to life, there will certainly be true-to-life tales of fallen heroes and great victories.
Jessie Diggins (CXC) comes out of her tuck and free skates into the stadium in the A-Final with teammate Jennie Bender just behind. Photo: James Doucett.
RUMFORD, Maine – Following a nail-biter of a skate sprint to open the U.S. Cross Country Championships, the athletes contesting Sunday’s classic sprint can be expected to finish out the week with another great race. And with important U23 Championship qualifying points still up for grabs, the younger skiers especially will be looking to fight to the top spot on the podium.
Athletes have been racing and training on the 1.4 and 1.6 k sprint courses all week and finally know exactly what to expect, where to make the move, and perhaps even the strengths and the weaknesses of the competitors they have been observing throughout the week.
However, there is one athlete on the start list that has shown no weakness this season, and certainly not this week. Jessie Diggins (CXC/USST) has taken all three U.S. Nationals titles this week and is looking to win the classic sprint to cap off a flawless week of racing. It is hard to bet against her, with a grand total of 12 wins this season between the SuperTour, NorAms and nationals.
After coming so close to victory on Tuesday’s opening skate sprint, Diggins’ CXC teammates Jennie Bender and Caitlin Gregg appear to be the contenders with a chance of knocking Diggins off the top step. Bender in particular is a strong classic sprinter, and has her eye on snatching her first gold medal of the week. Look for the two CXC stars to battle it out on Sunday.
Following an untimely pole break in the freestyle sprint, Ida Sargent (USST/CGRP) will be out for redemption. With three top results so far this week, including a second place in Thursday’s 20 k mass start classic, the strong classic skier will look to break free from the pack in the A-final.
Kate Fitzgerald (APU), fresh off a top five in the 20 k classic, should be shooting to climb onto the podium for the first time of this year’s nationals. Her teammate Rosie Brennan could also be a threat—her powerful technique will be an advantage in the long final straightaway.
Canadian star Dasha Gaiazova (RMR/CNST) enters her first sprint of the week. Known as an excellent sprinter on the World Cup, Gaiazova enters the race a favorite for the win. With numerous World Cup starts to her name, she may certainly use her speed and experience to outpace the field.
As of Saturday morning before training, Sadie Bjornsen (APU/USST) hadn’t decided if she would take to the line on Sunday, but if she ends up feeling well enough to put on a bib, it’s hard to count out a World Cup silver medalist.
Predictions:
Steve:
Jessie Diggins
Dasha Gaiazova
Ida Sargent
Jennie Bender
Kate Fitzgerald
Becca Rorabaugh
Matt:
Dasha Gaiazova
Jessie Diggins
Jennie Bender
Ida Sargent
Sadie Bjornsen (if racing) or Sophie Caldwell
Eliska Hajkova
Audrey:
Jessie Diggins
Jennie Bender
Dasha Gaiazova
Ida Sargent
Sadie Bjornsen (if racing) or Eliska Hajkova
Kate Fitzgerald
The men's A Final enters the stadium, Torin Koos (BSF) leads Dakota Blackhorse-von Jess (Bend Endurance Academy), Lars Flora (APU), Sylvan Ellefson (SSCV/Team Homegrown), Karl Nygren (CXC) and Tyler Kornfield (UAF). Photo: James Doucett.
Men:
The favorite coming into the event has to be Torin Koos(BSF/Rossignol), now with three straight U.S. Nationals sprint titles to his name. With a plethora of experience, Koos will look to capitalize on a course that has provided him with so much success over the years.
Aiming to end Koos’ stronghold on the sprints will be a number of elite racers. Sprint specialist Dakota Blackhorse-von Jess (Bend Endurance Academy) stands a good chance of ending Koos’ streak. Blackhorse-von Jess was able to ski behind Koos in the freestyle sprint earlier in the week and should now have a good idea of what to expect from the Olympian in the critical final few hundred meters of the stadium.
Mike Sinnott (SVSEF) will be looking to recapture the speed he had earlier in the season. Despite a sub-par U.S. Nationals so far, don’t count Sinnott out of the mix. Known as a strong sprinter, Sinnott will certainly be a threat. Sun Valley teammate Matt Gelso will look to improve upon his 30 k classic mass start, where he placed sixth.
The youngest U.S. Ski Team member, 20-year-old Skyler Davis (SMS/USST) will be looking to prove his berth on the national team. In 2011, Davis placed third in the event and will be looking to once again step onto the podium. Fellow USST D-team athlete Erik Bjornsen (APU/USST) also was on the podium in 2011 and will also be looking for a top result, though recent sickness may hold him back.
Eric Packer (Dartmouth) will return to Black Mountain on Sunday following a podium placing in Friday’s 30 k classic mass start. A strong sprinter, Packer will most definitely be in the mix. Tyler Kornfield (Alaska Winter Stars/University of Alaska Fairbanks) will be looking to make his second podium of the week. Sylvan Ellefson, (SSCV/Team HomeGrown) will hope take back the mere centimeters the eluded him in the week’s opening sprint.
Following a fourth place in the distance mass start, Lars Flora (APU) appears to be back to his old self. A veteran of the pack, Flora will look to use his years of experience to land yet another national podium spot.
CXC leading the way in the sprint A-final on Tuesday. They will be a threat again for the classic mass start. Photo: Toko.
With two events down, the U.S .Cross Country Championships is now half over. Friday, January 6th, 2012 will kick off with the 20/30 k classical mass start events. Conditions appear to be remaining steady, making for relatively predictable glide, which allows coaches to concentrate on kick. This may prove to be useful as the event is the first classic event of these championships.
We’re especially excited about the race because it’s the first domestic mass start of the season.
The Course
The 3.26 k loop is identical to one used in the 10/15 k freestyle events held on Thursday. The ladies will start the day off at 9:00 a.m. by completing six laps, and the men will take to the course at 11:00 a.m. and complete a total of nine laps.
With all of the top names expected to start the event, the day is certain to bring about much excitement.
Men’s Preview
Sylvan Ellefson (SSCV/Team Homegrown) enters the race with a number of standout results so far this season. In Thursday’s 15 k freestyle, Ellefson took the reigns and captured a step on the podium, a position that eluded him by mere centimeters in Tuesday’s freestyle sprint. As an all-around skier, Ellefson looks to continue his strong showings so far this week in the remaining two events at Black Mountain.
Torin Koos (BSF/Rossignol), now with three consecutive U.S. Cross Country Championship sprint titles to his name, elected to take a rest day during Thursday’s 15 k freestyle. Koos may have conserved enough energy to outpace the field in the 30 k classical mass start. Koos also has a lot of racing experience—as Dakota Blackhorse-von Jess said after finishing second to Koos in the freestyle sprint, he’s “a crafty old-veteran.”
David Norris (Alaska Winter Stars) is a relatively young skier with a collection of top results. Norris returns to Black Mountain after being on the podium in the 15 k classic event last year. With momentum from todays 15 k freestyle, where he finished 8th, carrying him forward, Norris will be looking to improve upon the result. Keep your eyes out for the strong Alaskan.
Noah Hoffman (USST/Team Homegrown) cannot be counted out in any domestic event. With good World Cup results to his name so far this season, Hoffman will be looking to capture a U.S. Cross Country Championship before the week is over. Not known as a strong sprinter, Hoffman’s best chances appear to be in Friday’s distance event.
Bryan Cook (CGRP) a former CXC team member, has had a strong showings so far this season, beginning with a win at the opening Eastern Cup 10 k freestyle held in Craftsbury, Vermont. Couple that with his fifth place in Thursday’s 15 k freestyle and Cook appears ready to make a run for the podium.
Staff Predictions
Steve:
Sylvan Ellefson
Torin Koos
David Norris
Noah Hoffman
Bryan Cook
Matt:
Sylvan Ellefson
Noah Hoffman
Erik Bjorsen
Lars Flora
Michael Sinnott
Audrey:
Noah Hoffman
Sylvan Ellefson
Torin Koos
Erik Bjornsen
Tad Elliott
Women’s Preview
Jessie Diggins (USST/CXC) is a safe bet for the victory. With 11 victories to her name so far this season, and no result worse than second, Diggins looks poised to capture her third consecutive win of this year’s U.S. Cross Country Championships. Look for Diggins to ski at the front of the race before trying to break free in the final kilometers.
Dasha Gaiazova (Rocky Mountain Racers/Canadian National Ski Team) is a safe bet. It is hard to believe Gaiazova would cross the Canadian/United States border without high expectations. The World Cup skier has been a driving force for the Canadians. While known as a strong sprinter, Gaiazova certainly possesses the fitness to battle for the 20 k classic mass start win.
Jennie Bender (CXC) After strong results at the NorAms in recent weeks as well as a total of eleven top 10 finishes so far this season, Bender looks set to capture her second US Cross Country Championship podium of the week.
Kate Fitzgerald (APU) is fresh off a podium finish in the 10 k freestyle will be contending for another top result. She’s experienced constant improvement over the last few years and seems comfortable skiing at the top of the sport.
Eliska Hajkova (CU) is the 2011 NCAA 15 k classical champion. Already with two top 5 results this week, Hajkova will be looking to break into a podium spot before the week is over. The 20 k classical event suits Hajkova’s strengths.
Tad Elliott (CXC) charges ahead in the 30K skate at US Nationals 2011 Photo: Flying Point Road.
RUMFORD, Maine — Racing resumes at Black Mountain on Thursday at 9:00 am with the 10/15 k individual-start freestyle. With forecasts predicting temperatures to remain below freezing for the majority of the week, the upcoming races will likely all be held on hard-packed, fast courses.
The Course
On Wednesday, athletes and coaches were seen testing skis, training and acquainting themselves with the entirety of the 3.26 k lap of which the women with do three laps and the men will do four.
Athletes will continue downhill from the original sprint course.
The beginning of the distance loop remains identical to the first section of Tuesday’s sprint course. The longer loop splits off in the old relay exchange area and carries athletes further into Black Mountain’s trail network.
Following a lengthy downhill section, athletes will climb back up in elevation before dropping again. This is the section where athletes will want to conserve as much energy as possible before climbing the infamous High School Hill, a deciding section of the course where only the strongest of athletes will prevail.
With lungs and legs burning, athletes will descend back onto the sprint course before heading into the stadium, where they will either head out for yet another lap or power towards the finish.
Men’s Preview:
Tad Elliott (Team Homegrown/USST) is the defending national 30 k champion in the classic discipline, and the Durango native is an even better skater. He found his form in Davos, Switzerland last month, scoring his first World Cup points with a 27th place in the 30 k skate. Back on home turf, Elliott will be a major threat on Thursday. As the first starter, however, he will be at a disadvantage in receiving splits, with the rest of the men’s A-seed in the chase.
Elliott’s teammate Noah Hoffman (Team Homegrown/USST) sits in the opposite position on the start list: as the 17th skier out of the gate, the distance specialist will be able to hunt his competition down. With the 30 k classic only a day later on Friday, however, which is Hoffman’s stronger distance, he may decide to conserve energy for the longer event. Regardless, Hoffman is clearly fit—he missed qualifying for the sprint heats by less than a second on Tuesday, his 33rd place a significant jump up from the 54th he finished in last year.
Lars Flora (APU) quietly finished in the top five in the skate sprint on Tuesday. As his real strength lies in distance racing, he will be one to watch out for. He is the defending 15 k classic champion, and was the runner-up to Elliott in last year’s 30 k freestyle race.
Sylvan Ellefson (SSCV/Team Homegrown) should also be right in the action on Thursday. He’s been racing well this winter, and the fact that he made it into his first A-final on Tuesday speaks to the fact that he’s in prime shape for this week of racing.
Mike Sinnott (Sun Valley Ski Education Foundation) started off the season in top shape, taking an early lead in the overall SuperTour and continuing to race well for the December NorAms. He was 10th in the sprint earlier this week, but with the prospect of World Cup racing coming up, he’ll be aiming for a top result.
Karl Nygren (CXC) seems to be getting into surprisingly fast form. His smart tactics played a big role in his progress through to the finals on Tuesday, but the University of Colorado alum also considers himself to be a better distance skier. Leif Zimmermann (BSF/Madshus) should be right in the mix as well—after a win at the opening SuperTour, he had two top-5s in the NorAm 15 ks. Veteran Brian Gregg (CXC) did well in the skate distance in West Yellowstone, and is could pop a good result on Thursday.
Staff Predictions:
Steve:
Sylvan Ellefson
Noah Hoffman
Lars Flora
Tad Elliot
Mike Sinnott
Audrey:
Tad Elliott
Noah Hoffman
Lars Flora
Sylvan Ellefson
Matt:
Noah Hoffman
Tad Elliott
Sylvan Ellefson
Lars Flora
Leif Zimmermann
Women’s Preview:
After her 10th win of the season, Jessie Diggins (CXC/USST) is the safest bet for the top spot in the women’s 10 k. She may be skiing with a target on her back, but at least as the 16th starter she can be the one to hunt everyone else down. After their sprint podium sweep on Tuesday, her teammates Caitlin Gregg and Jennie Bender will also be major contenders. The trio is clearly feeding off each others’ performances, and after her fall in the last meters of the A-final, Bender in particular will be out for redemption, though skate is her weaker discipline.
Ida Sargent (CGRP/USST) had an unlucky day in the sprint, breaking a pole and failing to find another one for a significant stretch in the final. She certainly has the potential to do well on this course, as she’s a strong skater on the hills. There will be no shortage of climbing with the women heading up High School Hill three times.
Sadie Bjornsen (APU/USST) took Tuesday’s sprint off due to illness, but is on the start list for Thursday. She could still skip the 10 k, but even if she doesn’t, her health might slow her down. Her teammate Kate Fitzgerald (APU), however, could pop a big race. She was fifth in both distance races at Nationals last January, and has had solid skate distance results all season.
Eliska Hajkova (University of Colorado), who was 5th on Tuesday, will have the altitude advantage on her side in the distance race, and has been training on snow much longer this season than some of her competitors. Corey Stock (Cambridge Sports Union), who finished 4th in the sprint, could have another breakout performance in the distance. But since the 17-year-old had to skip Nationals last year due to injury, she’s still a bit of an unknown against this caliber of a distance field.
The World Cup season kicked off last weekend in Sjusjoen, Norway with a 10/15km freestyle and a 4×5/10km relay, but in terms of a true “opener,” the now-annual Ruka Triple in Kuusamo, Finland provides for more drama, and a robust test for the athletes.
Kikkan Randall (USA), on her way to eighth place in the World Cup opener. Photo:Fischer/NordicFocus.
Action starts on Friday with the first sprint of the season—a 1.4 kilometer classic affair, that give sprinters a chance to see how they measure up after a summer of training.
Kikkan Randall (USA) is seeded number one after finishing third in the last season’s Sprint Cup. With Petra Majdic (SLO)and Arianna Follis (ITA) both retiring, Randall inherits the top spot.
She will be challenged by the usual suspects, including a bevy of Norwegians, led by the incomparable Marit Bjoergen. Randall will also have to deal with Justyna Kowalczyk (POL), the defending World Cup Champion, who struggled in last week’s opener.
But Kowalczyk is a stronger classic skier, and does not take defeat lightly. Also look for Finnish veteran Aino Kaisa Saarinen, Charlotte Kalla (SWE), Krista Lahteenmaki (FIN), Maiken Caspersen Falla (NOR) and Astrid Jacobson (NOR) to be battling for a sport in the final.
Because of the mini-tour format, distance skiers who might normally sit out a sprint, will try their hands at ski racings shortest distance. Therese Johaug (NOR) and Kristin Stoermer Steira (NOR) are among those who will not threaten in the sprint, but will be in the mix for the overall.
On the men’s side, the 126 skier field holds any number of athletes who could stand on the podium. With defending Sprint Cup winner Emil Joensson (SWE) sitting out as he recovers from an injury, the favorite is Norwegian Ola Vigen Hattestad.
But given the depth on the men’s circuit, he could just as easily face elimination in the first round as stand on top of the podium.
As usual, all eyes will be on Petter Northug (NOR) who, despite taking a solid beating from Johan Olsson (SWE) in the 15km in Sjusoen is off to a much better start this season.
Given his unmatched finishing kick and ability to will himself to victory, Northug can be counted on to be on the podium.
The race is a big one for American Andy Newell. Coming off a disappointing 2011 campaign, Newell would like to prove his mettle right off the bat. Qualifying is not the issue—the two-time Olympian is hoping a good summer of training will give him the fitness to advance through the rounds.
He is joined by teammate Simi Hamilton, making his 2012 World Cup debut. Hamilton showed World Cup speed last year in the Davos sprint, where he qualified 11th.
On the Canadian side, big Lenny Valjas, hopes to build on his 9th place finishi n the Drammen World Cup sprint. And of course teammates Alex Harvey and Devon Kershaw can be counted on to be in the mix.
Harvey had an excellent start to his season last week, and is clearly in top form. Kershaw on the other hand looks to bounce back from a disappointing 37th in the 15k.
Both men have stood on the World Cup sprint podium, and both are contenders for the overall Ruka Triple title.
Racing continues on Saturday with a 5/10km freestyle, before the weekend wraps up on Sunday with a 10/15km classic pursuit.
In terms of the overall, Bjojergen and Northug are certainly the favorites, with Kowalczyk, Kalla and Saarinen good bets to be the closest challenger on the women’s side.
For the men, any of a dozen skiers could stand on the podium on Sunday afternoon. Dario Cologna (SUI) one of the most consistent and well-rounded athletes is always a threat, and could have the power to upset Northug.
Last year’s men’s champion, Alexander Legkov (RUS), didn’t have to deal with Northug, but was impressive while blowing Cologna off the snow on the final day. He was a solid, yet unspectacular 11th on the opening weekend – perhaps a good sign given he was unable to hold his early form through the 2011 campaign.
Notably, Finn Matti Heikkinen has pulled out with an injury. According to Langrenn.com the 2011 World Champion injured his eye tripping over a billboard. While he did not get stitches, the resulting laceration was “glued” by a doctor, and racing poses a risk of infection. Heikkinen will rest 3-4 days.
Petter Northug (NOR) grabs 2nd in the World Cup opener. Photo:Fischer/NordicFocus.
For the North Americans, Harvey and Kershaw are both podium contenders. Kris Freeman (USA) is a step behind, but with a good weekend, the top-15 is definitely a possibility.
For the women, Randall could be looking for a top-10 or better, especially after her career-best 8th place finish in the 10km in Sjusjoen. Classic sprinting is not her forte, but she has improved steadily. If she can advance to the semis, she will be in position to put her ever-improving distance skiing to work.
Liz Stephen (USA) also had a strong opener. Decidedly not a sprinter, Stephen will have some ground to make up, but she is certainly capable of a top-30 overall.
A dark horse for the Americans is Holly Brooks. An excellent all-arounder, Brooks could also be in the running for the top-30 if she has her best races.
On the Canadian side, sprinters Chandra Crawford and Perianne Jones get their first taste of World Cup action in 2012. Crawford has improved her classic sprinting, and will look to qualify and advance out of the semis, and Jones will be aiming for the same.
Both women are stronger sprinters, so the weekend will be an opportunity to build fitness through distance racing.
Alysson Marshall, on her first major World Cup tour, will be picking up valuable experience.
Ida Sargent (USA) is a strong classic sprinter, and could surprise on the opening day. She had a rough weekend in Sjusjoen, and will need better form to advance to the heats.
Noah Hoffman and Tad Elliott, both distance specialists for the US will not excel on Friday, but both should move up over the course of the weekend. Veteran Lars Flora will also take to the line for the US. Accomplished in all disciplines and distances, Flora is well suited for the mini-tour format. He will probably not be in the mix for the top-30, but with good races, can be a solid US presence.
Canada also brings Ivan Babikov, Kevin Sandau, Drew Goldsack and Graham Nishikawa to Finland.
Sandau is looking for experience, while veteran Babikov will likely provide entertaining commentary on his sprint prowess via twitter before charging up the standings, and into the top-30 in the distance races.
With a weekend of World Cup racing out of the way, Justin Wadsworth, Canadian Head Coach, sees the Ruka Triple as a key element of the season.
“This weekend is big as it will set the tone for how each athlete can handle sprints, as well as both skating and classic distance races,” Wadsworth wrote to FasterSkier in an email. “By Sunday it should show overall fitness as well.”
Wadsworth said he expects all of his athletes to complete the entire weekend.
The Italian men’s sprint team emerged as a force in 2010-2011. With a few exeptions (Christian Zorzi, for one) the Italian men have never really been thought of as strong sprinters, probably because big names such as Pietro Piller Cottrer and Giorgio Di Centa qualify for sprints about as often as Petter Northug loses a sprint finish.
But Fulvio Scola stepped up his game significantly, Renato Pasini regained some of his former glory, and Federico Pellegrino did not disappoint in his first full World Cup season.
Scola was the biggest contributer, as the 29 year old who has never really made a splash on the circuit qualified for every sprint he competed in this winter – except the one at World Championships (missed peak, perhaps?). He finished 5th in the Sprint Cup rankings, and apparently likes running in one-piece suits.
Renato Pasini turned back the clock to 2009, and finished in the top 10 three times on his way to 9th in the Sprint Cup.
But it was young Pellegrino who punched his way onto the World Cup in style, winning qualification during the skate sprint in Davos, Switzerland, before ending his day last in the final. He qualified in the top 15 four other times, and also picked up his first career World Cup medal in Liberec, Czech Republic, after he tried to pull a fast one on Ola Vigen Hattestad and was taught a lesson by the elite Norwegian.
What You Need To Know for This Season
The Italian women’s team was gutted at the end of last season, and if it isn’t dead, it is now on life support. Arianna Follis pulled the plug after her best World Cup season ever, as did Marianna Longa, who might actually stay retired this time. Magda Genuin waited an extra month or so, but then followed her teammates rather than hang around for one more seaon.
It was the skiing of all three that pushed Italy from a second-tier nation into a battle with the Russians for a Nations Cup podium spot. The departure of sprinters Genuin and Follis, and distance heavyweight Longa will be extremely costly for the women’s program, and the Italians across the board.
While FasterSkier always likes a surprise, the chances of any of the Italian women having the kind of breakout campaign needed to replace the over 2600 World Cup points produced by their top three women last season is nil.
Giorgio Di Centa stands happily with an Italian flag draped over his shoulders at the Canmore, Alberta, World Cup in 2010. (Photo: Win Goodbody)
Italian hopes are pretty much centered on one man – Pellegrino. The sprint phenom who helped the country massively last season will be called on to do everything once again – generate excitement, score points, and probably wax skis as well.
FasterSkier knows that Silvia Rupil isn’t exactly a young gun in the pipeline, but here’s the deal – someone has to step up to replace the departed women, and Rupil is in the perfect position to do so.
She will be given all the opportunities possible to succeed; at 26 she is now one of the team leaders, she is entering just her third World Cup season, and we have seen flashes of elite ability, including two top tens and being a part of three World Cup medal winning relay teams last season.
If you speak Italian, check out this video, and let FasterSkier know how she’s progressing!
Dario Cologna (bib 1) leads the pursuit at World Championships.
Less than a week following the conclusion of the 2011 World Championships,in Oslo, the World Cup picks back up in Lahti, Finland. This is the last event prior to the World Cup Final, where only the top-50 ranked skiers and continental cup series leaders may enter.
There are a number of interesting story lines as the season winds down, mainly revolving around standings. Justyna Kowalczyk (POL) has locked up the women’s overall World Cup but the men’s overall and both sprint titles are up for grabs.
Saturday features a non-traditional 10/20km pursuit, an aberration from the standard 15/30km event due to the short break from the long distance events at the end of World Championships.
Dario Cologna (SUI) headlines the men’s field, and looks to solidify his overall World Cup lead. He should be able to do that given his closest challenger, Petter Northug (NOR), will not compete. Northug is 353 points down on Cologna, a significant margin with just a few events remaining. But with the World Cup Finals offering double points, a comeback was not out of a question – at least until Northug woke up with a sore throat earlier this week, and scratched from Lahti.
Cologna may have had the most disappointing Championships – always a favorite, the Swiss star struggled with bad skis and slighlty off-form. The World Cup overall is a consolation prize, albeit a large one.
Marcus Hellner (SWE) will also skip this weekend, though Swedish coach Joakim Abrahamsson told FIS that his top skier is healthy – he just needs to “recharge his batteries.”
Cologna will be challenged by Alexander Legkov, and the outcome has significance beyond the single race. Legkov is just 60 points down on Cologna in the distance World Cup standings. The Russian also is hoping to rebound from an epic collapse in the relay last week, and hasn’t shown top form since falling ill with the flu at the Tour de Ski.
Most of the other big names are present – Maxim Vylegzhanin (RUS), Daniel Rickardsson (SWE) and Lukas Bauer (CZE) among others take to the starting line, as will Canadians Alex Harvey and Devon Kershaw.
It will be interesting to see how the race plays out. It is safe to assume that all the top skiers were focusing their training on the Championships – some may still be riding that peak, others may be a bit off form.
The race could be a good opportunity for American Kris Freeman, who was unable to ideally prep for the Championships due to illness. He was forced to push off the intensity that was meant to get him ready for the big races. He didn’t have the pop he was hoping for in Oslo, but the upshot is that he could close out the season strong.
Freeman opted to sit out the 50k to focus on the World Cup. While he has been stronger in the individual start events, a good result in the pursuit is certainly attainable.
Another man to watch is Finn Juha Lallukha. Lallukha surprised everyone outside of the Finnish team with a formidable leg in the relay, and a fine performance in the 50k, where he attacked the field in the lat 2.5k, before fading at the end.
He is known as a skater, so the classic leg will likely define his day.
In addition to Kershaw and Harvey, Ivan Babikov and Graham Nishikawa will start for the Canadians, while Lars Flora gets the nod for the US.
The women’s field is nearly full – only Kristin Stoermer Steira (NOR) is missing from the top distance skiers. Kowalcyk will take another stab at besting Marit Bjoergen, while Therese Johaug looks to repeat her Championship 30k performance.
Kowalczyk, Longa, and Saarinen battle in the 15km pursuit in Oslo.
Good money is obviously on Bjoergen. She has had Kowalczyk’s number all season, and Johaug is at a disadvantage in a 10k – her lack of finishing speed takes her of the running in a close race, and the short distance will make it hard to repeat her devastating move from Oslo.
Swede Charlotte Kalla ended her Championships on a down note – while she finished 4th, she was unable to stick with the leaders and was clearly disappointed. Though she may be hungry to get back on the podium, Kalla was the only top skier, male or female, to race all six events in Oslo. It will be interesting to see if she is recovered.
Aino Kaisa Saarinen also left Norway with a subpar performance. Overall she had an excellent Championships, with three medals, but struggled mightily in the 30k. She is always a threat and is joined by young teammate Krista Lahteenmaki.
Finally, you can’t count out the Italians. Marianna Longa was so close all week in Oslo – including relays, she had two fourths, a fifth, a seventh and an eighth. Her teammate Arianna Follis has not been on top of her game in distance racing of late, but she skipped the 30k, so should be well rested.
Kikkan Randall leads the North Americans. Randall did not have her best Championships, including a heartbreaking fall in the sprint quarterfinals. Her distance skiing has not been at her highest level, so she will look to get things going in Lahti.
She is joined by teammates Holly Brooks, Liz Stephen, and Morgan Arritola. Brooks, as the US SuperTour leader gets some more World Cup starts, while Arritola is running out of time to turn around her season.
Short of an unprecedented result from Stephen or Arritola, neither will be eligible for the World Cup finals. So this is likely their last World Cup appearances of the year.
Dasha Gaiazova, Perianne Jones, and Chandra Crawford hit the trails for Canada. Crawford is looking to build her endurance, and Jones to gain additional World Cup experience. Gaiazova has the best shot at a solid result, but has been focusing on sprinting for most of the year.
Racing kicks off at 12:45 in Finland. Women race first, followed by the men at 2:15.
Tora Berger (NOR) racing at the Vancouver Olympics. Berger has won the last four World Cup races.
On Friday morning at 9:30 a.m., the United States will hold its first World Cup race since 2004.
The IBU World Cup circuit will be making stops in Presque Isle, Maine, this weekend, and then in nearby Fort Kent next weekend. While it might take almost as long to get to “The County” from the U.S. as from anywhere else, the races should be spectacular. If you can’t make it to Maine, the event will be broadcast live by Eurovision and the International Biathlon Union, and can be watched online on the IBU website (click the “BiathlonWorld TV” link).
Either way, there’s no reason not to skip off work a little early on Friday afternoon and watch the best biathletes in the world race around in our own time zone. Here’s a brief guide to what to watch.
Emil Svendsen (NOR) on the range in Vancouver.
1. World Cup Overall Leaders – and Contenders
One of the biggest questions of the next two weekend is whether the current overall World Cup leaders can hang onto their yellow bibs. 22-year-old Tarjei Boe of Norway leads his teammate Emil Hegle Svendsen by just six points going into this batch of races. Boe has worn the yellow bib since mid-December, but hasn’t won a World Cup since the first weekend in January. To keep his lead in the standings, he will have to beat Svendsen consistently – no small feat, considering that Svendsen has three victories to his name already this season, bringing his career total to 19, and was recently added to the Norwegian team to cross-country World Championships. He’s fast.
On the women’s side, Kaisa Makarainen of Finland has worn the yellow bib since the very first weekend of World Cup competition in Oestersund, Sweden. But the only two victories of her career came that weekend, and since then she’s been less impressive. Her lead over Helena Ekholm of Sweden has dwindled to just 14 points, and Germany’s Andrea Henkel is making a charge at the title as well. Ekholm, the 2008/2009 overall World Cup winner, has two victories so far this season. Henkel has none, but she’s been on the podium more consistently than almost any other woman, and could finally win a race at any point.
Jeremy Teela (USA) and Ole Einar Bjorndalen (NOR) in Vancouver.
2. The Norwegian Men
It’s impressive enough that Norway has both of the top contenders for the overall World Cup on their team. But Boe and Svendsen certainly aren’t the only Norwegian men who could win in Presque Isle and Fort Kent. No less than four of the team’s biathletes have collected victories on the World Cup circuit this year: Boe, Svendsen, Lars Berger, and of course, 37-year-old living legend, 92-time World Cup winner, and six-time Olympic gold medalist Ole Einar Bjorndalen. The team didn’t appear to be in top form at the last few World Cups in the Alps, but people, including Swedish Olympic gold medalist Bjorn Ferry, hypothesized that they were suffering from the effects of altitude. Back close to sea level, any one of the four could win again.
3. Tora Berger
While the Norwegian men had lackluster results in the Alps, their teammate Tora Berger (Lars’ sister) did not. She won two races in Ruhpolding, Germany, and then another two in Antholz, Italy, and appears poised to make a late-season run through the rankings. Berger’s ski speed is so fast that it sometimes straight-up demoralizes the competition. FasterSkier hopes that there isn’t a third Berger sibling, who would undoubtedly suffer from incredibly low self-esteem.
4. The Russians
In the first period of World Cup racing, the Russians were completely uninspiring. But then, gradually, they reappeared in the spotlight. In Antholz, the women raced to a dominating victory in the relay. After that effort anchor leg Olga Zaitseva, who has won one World Cup on her own this season, told IBU News that “We are back.” Anton Shipulin was also on the podium twice in Antholz, and seems to be rounding into form. It would be surprising for the Russians not to be skiing fast, considering that they are hosting World Championships in a few short weeks and will without a doubt be at their best in front of the home crowds.
Bjorn Ferry (SWE) en route to a gold medal performance at the Vancouver Olympics.
5. Bjorn Ferry
Ferry is one of the most boisterous media personalities in the biathlon world: he has a great sense of humor and strong opinions. At one point, the 6′ 4″ Swede suggested that dopers should get the death penalty. He also has a wife who is a seven-time world champion arm wrestler, a cookbook entitled “Ferry Food,” and a website called “Ferry Tales.” But as entertaining as all of these quirks are (FasterSkier enjoyed interviewing him in Muonio, Finland earlier this season), it’s Ferry’s skiing and shooting that gets him the most attention. He picked up his first Olympic gold medal in Vancouver and has two wins so far this season. He will probably anchor the mixed relay in Preque Isle; Sweden won the mixed relay at 2007 World Championships with a potentially identical team, and are always dangerous in that event.
6. Martin Fourcade
With three second-place finishes in Ruhpolding, Germany, and then a thrilling, dominating, flag-waving mass start victory in Antholz a week later, Fourcade is on the rise. There aren’t many people who scare Ferry, but earlier this season he said that the French would be the team to watch. Lately, it looks like he might be right. This season, Fourcade, who sits fourth in the overall World Cup rankings, is eclipsing Olympic champion Vincent Jay. It’s no small task, but if Fourcade is still as fired-up as he was in Italy, he’ll be outshadowing everyone else on the circuit as well.
Magdalena Neuner (GER) races to Olympic gold in Vancouver.
7. Magdalena Neuner
At just 23 years of age, Magdalena Neuner of Germany already has twenty World Cup victories. So far this season, she only has one – but she’s also contributed to a victorious German relay team that is on the rebound after the retirement of three stars: Martina Beck, Simone Hauswald, and Kati Wilhelm. Neuner has more up her sleeve and will undoubtedly have a few good races before the season is over.
8. Lowell Bailey and the U.S. Men: the Veterans and the Skinny Fast Young Kid
Lowell Bailey has been on a tear recently, notching a career-best 12th-place finish in Antholz and tagging off after the first leg of the relay in an astonishing second place. While last year it was the Tim Burke show, this year is turning out to be all about Bailey. But behind him are a veteran squad including Burke, three-time Olympian Jeremy Teela, and four-time Olympian Jay Hakkinen. And then there’s Leif Nordgren, the only young blood on the team. Nordgren shot clean to finish in the top 40 of the first World Cup race of the season, and has contributed several excellent relay legs, including one in Antholz which left the team in fifth place after two skiers. While Bailey is turning the team into a bit of a one-man show, it’s also good to see a diverse group of athletes able to contribute; the Antholz relay was the best U.S. result in two years.
Laura Spector racing to 19th place in the World Cup sprint in Oberhof. Photo: nordicfocus.com courtesy of USBA.
9. Laura Spector and the U.S. Women
Expectations haven’t exactly been high for the U.S. women lately, and neither has funding: while the men’s team spent weeks in Europe this summer, training just as the European teams do, the women were stuck in Lake Placid. They have a smaller World Cup quota because of a lack of success in recent years and haven’t always been able to even field a full relay team. But out of all of this have come some exceptional performances. Laura Spector has led the way with top-30 and even a top-20 result, as well as qualifying for two mass start races; the last time a U.S. woman skied in a mass start, which only allows for 30 athletes, was six years ago. Sara Studebaker has finished in the top 30 as well, and Haley Johnson, the latest addition to the World Cup team, is keeping up with the others just fine.
10. Brendan Green and the Canadians
If Tim Burke was the hero of American biathlon last year, then Jean-Phillipe Leguellec was the Canadian equivalent. He finished sixth, 11th, and 13th in races at the Vancouver Olympics, prompting him to tattoo the Olympic rings on his leg. But this year, Brendan Green is stealing his spotlight. The pair have each had excellent finishes, and made history when both competed in a mass start earlier this season; it was the first time that Canada had put two athletes in a mass start. Canada will be fielding a full team, so look for them in the somewhat-unconventional red suits.
The race season started off last weekend in Muonio, Finland, but that was just a preview.
This weekend, the Olos resort will be hosting three more races, with a start list including over 600 skiers from twenty-two different countries.
In addition, the Americans have arrived in full force: the Craftsbury Green Racing Project has been joined by the U.S. Ski Team (USST), and the Maine Winter Sports Center’s (MWSC’s) collection of athletes from around the country.
Game on.
For the USST, each athlete is expected to race twice. Simi Hamilton, Andy Newell, and Kikkan Randall will contest Friday’s skate sprint, as well as Saturday’s 5 k/10 k classic race. Noah Hoffman, Kris Freeman, and Liz Stephen will only compete in the distance races – Saturday’s classic race and an identical skate competition on Sunday.
Morgan Arritola contracted the 24-hour flu before leaving the States and only arrived in Finland last night, but was skiing this morning and is tentatively scheduled to start the distance races.
USST Continental Cup Coach Bryan Fish was enthusiastic about the skiing in Muonio when FasterSkier caught him in the waxroom this morning.
“It’s great skiing here – it’s really nice to have a good set track right away. It’s like we’re jumping right into mid-season skiing,” he said.
He said that in the early season, it’s important for athletes to get race starts to compare their level to the competition. Muonio is the perfect place to do that, because there are so many top athletes in attendance, Fish continued.
He’s right about that. The start list is crammed with World Cup stars like Andrus Veerpalu (EST), the entire Finnish national team, the entire German national team, the entire Italian national team, Justyna Kowalczyk (POL), and Petra Majdic (SLO).
That’s why the private teams have come as well. In addition to Ida Sargent, who qualified second in the classic sprint on Sunday, the Craftsbury Green Racing Project brought NCAA All-Americans Pat O’Brien, Hannah Dreissigacker, and Dylan McGuffin, as well as five other athletes.
“Last weekend was a good warm-up for this weekend, because there’s definitely a lot more people. It’s exciting,” Sargent said.
Among the skiers with the Maine Winter Sports Center trip are 2008 NCAA Champion Glenn Randall, 2006 Olympian Leif Zimmerman, senior competitors Audrey Weber, Fred Bailey, and Adele Espy, and top junior Sam Tarling.
For these athletes, the draw is mainly points – and experience. With a few athletes on the start list with FIS points of zero, and a minimum penalty of 15, a good race here in Muonio could have very low points indeed.
For the rest of the American ski community, this is exciting news, because these points will be used to calculate penalties around the country during the regular season when the athletes in Muonio return. Both privately-funded trips will be heading back to the U.S. in two weeks.
The U.S. Ski Team, though, will stay in Europe. According to Fish, these races will decide which athletes will travel to the World Cup openers in Gallivare, Sweden, and who will stay in Finland for more domestic-level racing.
“Everyone has a good, professional demeanor here,” Fish said. “Our expectations for the athletes are realistic, but they’re also high.”
When asked whether he had a feel for who might pop a big race this weekend, he smiled.
Kikkan Randall leads up the last rise during yesterday's 30km at US Distance Nationals.
The SuperTour Finals fits into a relatively new genre of competition – that of “mini-tour.” The term derives from the Tour De Ski, the multi-stage World Cup event featuring eight races in ten days. And while World Cup points are awarded for each individual race (half points actually), the big prize is the overall title.
The success of the Tour on the global stage has led to the concept of the mini-tour, a similar format usually consisting of three races in three days. The recently concluded World Cup Finals is an example of just such an event, and the OPA Cup Finals in Slovenia, another iteration.
Skiers must complete all three events to be eligible for the overall. In a break from the standard Tour format, skiers will be allowed to enter one or two races if they choose.
Breaking News: Ivan Babikov has reported that he is feeling sick. If Babikov is not in top form, or does not race, it will have a major impact on the results. Of course he is known for his toughness, and won the Final Climb at the Tour de Ski a year ago when sick.
Mass Start
The US version starts Friday with a classic mass start event 7.6km for women and 10.9km for men. As is standard practice in the mini-tour format, bonus seconds will be awarded at various intermediate points throughout the race.
The mass start races are very short for that format, so it is likely that the field will stay tight at the front and the bonus seconds will be critical in the overall standings.
The 4.3km main loop features one large extended climb nearly 1.5km in length, and one of the bonus preems will be awarded at the top of this hill. The men’s race features three preems, at 3km, 6.3km and 9.6km. The women’s race has two bonus sprints, at 3km and 6.3km.
15,10 and 5 seconds will be subtracted from the overall time for the top-3 at each preem.
It will be interesting to see how the bonus seconds will impact race strategy. On the World Cup, they have generally led to more exciting races with more attacks and counters. It is likely we will see similar action tomorrow, and given the short race distances, an attack for the preem could turn into a full break away.
Ivan Babikov (CAN) is the heavy favorite to win overall honors this weekend.
The fields are large and highly competitive. World Cup skiers Ivan Babikov, Andy Newell and Torin Koos headline the men’s field, but will be pushed hard by a number of domestic racers.
Koos has been sick this spring, and did not travel to Europe, so his form is unknown. Newell and Babikov have been racing a ton and fatigue could be an issue.
Babikov won yesterday’s 50km US National Championship event, while Newell did not start. The two skiers are polar opposites, with Newell a world-class sprinter, and Babikov a top-10 World Cup distance skier.
Newell’s distance racing has vastly improved this season, and he will be looking to stay with the leaders in preparation for the sprint on Saturday, while Babikov needs to get as much cushion as possible as is sprinting is weak to say the least.
Tad Elliot, the Naitonal Champion in the 50k is coming off a very successful season and will be in the mix. The list goes on form there – James Southam, Lars Flora, Gord Jewett, Simi Hamilton, Brian Gregg, Garrott Kuzzy, Frederic Touchette, Brent McMurtry, and Len Valjas to name just a few. Patrick Weaver, former Olympian, and current UVM assistant coach will join the fray, as will former UVM standout Juergen Uhl. It will be interesting to see how they fare against the current crème de la crème of North American ski racing.
Young David Norris, who leapt into the national spotlight with his performance in Anchorage in the 30k, is also worth keeping an eye on.
This is the most elite field for a US race of the season, and it is hard to pick favorites. Gregg has been racing in Europe, and should be confident. But Kuzzy and Hamilton are more rested…
And again, the short distance does create even more uncertainty.
The one thing that you can count on is that if he is recovered, Babikov will attack on the big climb and try to get away. Whether or not he succeeds is another question. The rest of the field should stay tight and battle for the bonus seconds.
The women’s field is just as impressive. Kikkan Randall, Rebeccas Dussault, Holly Brooks, Caitlin Compton, Brooke Gossling and Kristina Strandberg will do battle in Madawaska.
Randall is definitely the favorite. She is a top-20 World Cup skier in distance events, and is skiing very well right now.
She has also been racing a ton and just arrived from Europe to boot. She won the 30km and is stronger as the distance gets shorter. Look for her to ski at the front and use her superior sprinting speed to collect bonus seconds and the overall win.
It won’t come easily, however, and it is unlikely that she will be able to break away completely. Many of the women have unfinished business after a very hard 30k where things got rough as the finish approached. No one will be settling for second.
As with the men’s event, the short distance and bonus sprints will make for an exciting and close race.
On top of that, this should be an excellent opportunity for good FIS points. The times will be close, and the presence of the World Cup skiers, as long as they are at the top of the result sheet, will make for a good base.
In addition to the bonus seconds, there is a preem of $250 at the 1km mark, ensuring there will be no relaxed skiing out of the start. 1st, 2nd and 3rd receive $250, $150, 1n2 $100 respectively.
Sprint
Andy Newell recently took home 4th place in the overall Sprint Cup (Photo: Kikkan Randall)
The classic sprint is a little more straightforward. There is no question that Newell and Randall or the favorites.
Newell is coming off his first World Cup podium in the event, and is fit and fast. Koos would normally be considered a challenger, but his health raises questions.
The biggest threat to Newell is most likely Hamilton, who raced very well at both the Olympics and in the Oslo World Cup in the classic sprint, and should be in the final.
After that it is another crapshoot. Kuzzy is always a force in a US sprint, and based on the results at US Nationals in Anchorage, where the final was made up of young, relatively (and relative is the operative word here) unknown skiers, there could be many surprises.
Look for Len Valjas of Canada to be in the mix. He has been skiing very well and has the speed to reach the final.
Randall set a career-best in the Olympics, finishing 8th in the classic sprint, and followed up with a 2nd in the skate sprint in Oslo. She is rolling now, and the women’s sprinting field in the US is not as strong as the distance racers, so it is unlikely anyone will be able to hang with Kikkan.
The usual suspects of Brooks, Dussault, Gosling and Compton should be contending for the podium, but don’t count out Ida Sargent, a ripping fast sprinter who skied very well at U23 Championships.
Sargent could easily take the 2nd spot behind Randall.
Like the European tours, bonus points are awarded to all sprinters qualifying for the heats. The race winner receives 60, down to 1 for 30th place.
With just three events, and both distance races quite short, these bonuses will be huge.
The big question in the men’s race will be whether or no Babikov can qualify. He needs to have a good race to keep his chances in the overall alive.
In an interesting and fun variation, the top qualifier in both races receives a $250 bonus. Race winners will get the same prize money as in the mass start.
Hill Climb
Tad Elliot (USA) racing earlier this year at the U23 Championships, Hinterzarten, Germany – 15km Classic.
Sunday marks the final day of racing, and as in the Tour de Ski, racers get to tackle a major climb. The Maine version is a bit easier, but should provide plenty of suffering.
The men race 7.5km, the women 5.3.
Both courses feature rolling terrain over the first portion of the race. The women ski roughly 2k before hitting the climb, while the men do nearly 4.5. There is a rolling gradual descent over the kilometer approaching the hill.
The climb itself is not long, just over 1 kilometer long, but gains 125 meters of elevation in that time.
In an interesting adaptation, the race does not end at the top. Another 2 kilometers of rolling terrain awaits skiers at the summit. This will definitely impact race strategy, as simply hammering the climb may not be the wisest of choices.
The race is a handicap start meaning racers will start in order of the current overall standings. The shorter climb and rolling terrain on the rest of the course will make it more likely that sizable leads will hold up, but there should be plenty of action where the field is compressed.
Babikov is the clear favorite in the men’s event. He won the Final Climb in the Tour de Ski last season, and was 5th this year. He is one of the best pure climbers in the world. The big question will be if there is enough climb for him to come back after the sprint., but the “man of the day” should go to him (skier with the fastest time).
Newell should like the short distance, and the somewhat individual nature of the race, and Elliot, if continues to ski well, could make the podium for the day. But again, any of a dozen or more men should be in the mix.
Randall is an obvious pick on the women’s side. The 5.3km distance will suit her well, and her fitness is a step above the rest. Her body just needs to hold on for one last race after a grueling month.
Compton will also be very strong – she is a better skater, and had an impressive 14th on the notoriously hilly Canmore World Cup course.
An unknown is Japanese World Cup skier Chisa Obayashi. The veteran of the 2005 World Championships, Obayashi’s results have been on par with the likes of Brooks and Dussault. She has never cracked the top-30 on the World Cup, so it is unlikely she will challenge Randall.
Overall
As this is the first time most of these skiers have raced a mini-tour event, predictions are tough. If Babikov can stay close enough in the sprint, he should be in position to take the lead on the last day. He will be gunning for every second in the mass start, and no one is tougher.
Newell should make some time on the sprint, and will be in position for the podium. After that it is wide open, but given the short formats, I believe the sprint will hold extra importance. The difference between any two places is not significant, but a skier in the top-5 of that event will gain big time on the back of the top-30 and those who do not qualify. For that reason, Simi Hamilton is my pick for 3rd.
Brent McMurtry has not received any hype so far here, but the Canadian is an excellent all-rounder, and could be in the top-5 in any event, putting him in position for the overall podium.
For the women, it is all Kikkan. She is the best in each event, so the only thing that will derail her is fatigue or illness.
Compton is a stronger skater, so the first two classic races will be a challenge, but she will love the last day and could make up big ground.
Finally, Brooks has shown she can compete with anyone other than Randall in any distance and technique in the US. This versatility will put her on the podium.
Prize money for the overall is as follows: 1st – $1,500, 2nd – $1,000, 3rd – $500, 4th – $400, 5th – $300, 6th – $200.
Predictions
Here are my predictions, but what do I know? FasterSkier is running a “Pick the Podium” contest for the SuperTour Finals. You pick the podiums for each race as well as the overall. Prizes to the winners. You can enter the contest here.
Mass Start
Men:
Babikov – he will charge hard early and try for every second.
Hamilton – has the speed to sprint for the podium.
Kuzzy – he was the fastest Continental Cup skier in North America in the fall. He rallies here
Chris Cook – a great classic skier and fast finisher
Southam – has been the 2nd best distance racer in the US behind Kris Freeman.
Newell – I think he has the distance chops.
McMurtry – could be on the podium. Talented and fast, he has gained valuable international experience.
Elliot – smoking fast, a great talent.
Gord Jewett – experienced, fit and fast.
Koos – he could easily be further up, or way down. Depends entirely on health and fitness
Women:
Randall – she is the best in North America.
Brooks – More experienced with every race, she didn’t have the Olympics she was hoping for. She will be hungry.
Dussault – An excellent season on the SuperTour circuit. She will not back down.
Gosling – will just miss the podium again, but will be in the mix.
Kristina Strandberg – a great classic skier, she could sneak onto the podium.
Compton – classic is not her forte, but the distance and mass start format will keep her in the mix. Her fitness is excellent.
Nicole DeYong – showed good stuff in the 30k, and skied very well on the OPA circuit this spring.
Tazlina Mannix – has been quiet this year, but has plenty of speed.
Ida Sargent – Has been a little inconsistent in the distance races this season.
Katie Ronsse – Fast Alaskan should be looking for the top-10 in every race.
Sprint
Men:
Newell – World Cup podium, need I say more.
Hamilton – top-30 at the Olympics, and more impressively, 34th in Oslo. Legit.
Koos – When he is on, he can sprint with anyone, will he have the endurance in the heats?
Cook – the classic sprint is his best event.
Kuzzy – I am predicting a good weekend from him, but he is not a sure thing.
McMurtry – Will lead the Canadians.
Women:
Randall – the best. By a long shot.
Sargent – one of the best sprinters in the country.
Brooks – a finals appearance for sure.
Dussault – will just miss the podium in a tight finish.
Strandberg – Dominated the SuperTour a year ago. Anything classic is good for her.
Compton – classic sprinting is not her thing, but she has the fitness to make it to the finals.
Final Climb (best time of the day)
Men:
Babikov – no one should be close.
Elliot – has the legs for the climb.
Noah Hoffman – Surprise of the weekend, Hoffman is light and quick on the climbs.
Newell – Will be working for the overall podium.
Hamilton – like Newell, will be pushing for the overall.
Women:
Randall – she could end up further down if she has a big lead.
Compton – skating + climbing = good race.
Dussault – Will like the tough course.
Ronsse – Will move up in the overall.
Gosling – finishes strong.
Overall
Men:
Babikov – he will make up some big time.
Newell – Starts with a lead, but can’t hold Babikov on the hill.
Hamilton – Can do it all, and the sprint will be big.
Stockholm, Sweden – The World Cup Finals begins in Stockholm with the last sprint competition of the year.
Only the top-40 skiers in the world (by World Cup points) and Continental Cup leaders are permitted to start the World Cup Finals.
This rule has an impact of the composition of the field, though the main difference we see is the inclusion of more distance skiers in the sprint competition – as they must race this event to continue the rest of the World Cup Finals.
Additionally, since the sprint is part of the Finals, only half points are awarded.
The overall Sprint Cup winners have been decided, Justyna Kowalczyk (POL), and Emil Joensson (SWE), but the rest of the podium is very much up in the air. Andy Newell (USA) is 4th, just 17 points out of seconds behind Alexei Petukhov (RUS) and Petter Northug (NOR).
Marit Bjoergen (NOR) is 3rd in the women’s standings, but is just five points behind Petra Majdic (SLO), who is out for the season with an injury. With a maximum of 50 points available, Aino Kaisa Saarinen (FIN) in 4th will not be able to climb into the top-3.
Andy Newell and Brian Gregg will start for the US men, and Kikkan Randall for the women.
Daria Gaiazova represents the Canadian women and Ivan Babikov, Devon Kershaw, Alex Harvey and Graham Nishikawa race for the Canadian men.
Oslo, Norway – The World Cup has moved to Oslo, the site of the 2011 World Championships, and Saturday’s 30/50km freestyle will be a preview of that event.
The Holmenkolen Ski Stadium has undergone a major renovation since the last World Cup races here in 2008. The biggest change is the new Ski Jump overlooking the city.
The women will race a single 5km lap and then three 8.3km loops. The men will ski the 8.3km loop six times. In recent years a 16.7km lap had been used.
Ski change rules will be in effect, with the women allowed two swaps and the men three. Intermediate bonus World Cup points will also be awarded – 15, 10, and 5 points will be given to the top-3 at various distances. The women will have three opportunities to earn points, at 8km, 16.3km, and 24.6km. The men have five chances – 11.3km, 19.6km, 27.9km, 36.2km, and 44.5km.
The fields are strong and deep, with Olympic standouts Petter Northug and Marit Bjoergen both competing in front of the home crowd. Justyna Kowalczyk (POL) and Virpi Kuitunen (FIN), however, are both missing from the women’s race.
With Kowalczyk on the sidelines, Bjoergen is the clear favorite in the 30km. She has been on fire for the last month, and is in perhaps the best form of her career. Victory at historic Homenkolen will not come easily though. Charlotte Kalla (SWE), one of the best skaters in the world leads a the challengers. Her teammate Anna Haag, Aino Kaisa Saarinen (FIN) and Kristin Stoermer Steira (NOR) will also be in the hunt. Kristina Smigun (EST) also return to the World Cup for the first time following the Olympics, and is strong in the longer distances.
The US starts three skiers – Morgan Arritola, Caitlin Compton, and Liz Stephen. Stehpen is looking to regain her early season form after struggling at the Olympics. Both Arritola and Compton are capable of posting top-30 results, but with a strong Norwegian Nations Group, places will be hard to come by.
No Canadian women will start.
Following Wednesday’s sprint in Drammen, Northug was not a sure thing to start the 50, but he decided to go for it, and immediately becomes the favorite. Dario Cologna (SUI) will not race. He has been battling a sinus infection and will race the Engadin Ski Marathon on Sunday.
With the exception of Cologna, the top of the field will closely resemble the group that battled for medals in Whistler. Lukas Bauer (CZE), Axel Teichmann (GER), Marcus Hellner (SWE), and Jean Marc Gaillard, among many others will fight with Northug at the front.
Canada starts a strong contingent with Ivan Babikov, Devon Kershaw, ALex Harvey, and George Grey, all looking to repeat their Olympic successes. Graham Nishikawa also gets the call.
The US is led by James Southam. Brian Gregg and Mike Hinckley will get some additional World Cup experience in the tough 70-man field.
Whistler, British Columbia – And so it all comes to an end. Two weeks after the first 2010 Olympics cross-country ski race, the final event is just over an hour away – the men’s 50km classic.
The weather is better today – but only in relative terms. Instead of the heavy downpour of yesterday, the rain can be characterized as a light drizzle. Conditions are slow again, and ski switching will again play a major role.
The 50km is one of the hardest races to predict, so much will come down to who has the most left after a packed racing schedule.
Lukas Bauer (CZE) is a good bet for a top spot. He did not race either of the sprint events, so should be in good form. He has been skiing well since the beginning of January, and was held back in the pursuit by slow skis in the skate portion.
After that it could be just about anyone from a group of 10-15 men. This is one race where Petter Northug (NOR) is not a runaway favorite. 50k is pushing the upper limits of his endurance, and the slow conditions will not play to his strengths. It is unlikely that there will be a large group together for the final kilometers. If Petter wants a medal he will need to match the attacks that will break up the pack relatively early.
An interesting case is Andrus Veerpalu, the Estonian classic distance expert. Veerpalu has not raced in these Olympics, remaining home until just recently, with the hope of being the most rested and ready. His focus should pay dividends and he will be one of those pushing the pace early.
No other Norwegian has much chance for a medal, and Sweden’s best hope is Anders Soedergrenn. Soedergrenn doesn’t think much of large packs cruising slowly, so look for him to make a move if the race is settling. His teammate Johan Olsson could be a dark horse candidate for the top-5 as well.
Like Northug, the 50km classic is not Marcus Hellner’s best event, and he will be hard pressed to match his gold medal performance from the pursuit.
The Germans, with Tobias Angerer, Rene Sommerfeldt, and Axel Teichmann will be in the mix, with Angerer currently skiing the best of the group.
Other skiers to watch include Dario Cologna (SUI), Pietro Piller Cottrer (ITA), Maxim Vylegzhanin (RUS), Sami Jauhojaervi (FIN) and Vincent Vittoz (FRA).
The US starts two skiers – James Southam and Kris Freeman. Southam missed the relay due to illness. This race has been his focus all along. If he is fully healthy, a top-30 is in reach.
Freeman is a questionmark at this point. These Olympics have been a struggle, and at this point expectations are low.
The Canadian team starts the big four of Babikov, Kershaw, Harvey and Grey. Each is very capable of the top-10, and medals are possible. Look for Babikov, with his fierce determination to lead the charge, and Alex Harvey, a World Cup podium finisher in this event, to be close behind.
Marit Bjoergen will gun for her fourth gold and fifth medal of the 2010 Olympics.
Whistler, British Columbia – Heavy falling snow and the ability to swap skis during the race await the field in the final women’s cross-country ski race of the 2010 Olympic Games.
55 women will take to the start line in the 30 km classic mass start event at Whistler Olympic Park. Despite the absence of two of the top skiers, the race should be hotly contested over the 3x10km course.
Petra Majdic (SLO), who has not raced since the sprint race, is obviously not on the start list. And Anna Haag, a winner of two medals thus far – a bronze in the pursuit, and a silver in the team sprint – fell ill after the medal ceremony for the team event and is not yet healthy.
“I am not ready. I have problems with my sickness still and have a little fever and am tired,” Haag said.
The leaves Marit Bjoergen (NOR) and Justyna Kowalczyk (POL) as the clear favorites in the race. Bjoergen has gotten stronger as the Games have gone on, and now has three golds and a bronze in four races.
Kowalczyk does not like the rolling Whistler courses, but she can , and the heavy snow is in her favor.
Finland finally broke through with a medal in the relay, and both Aina-Kaisa Saarinen and Virpi Kuitunen are contenders today. Kuitunen has been a bit of a mystery during the Games, racing only the sprint and the relay. She was solid in the relay but not exceptional.
Saarinen has raced more, and fatigue could be an issue, but of the two, she is currently more consistent. Both will be highly motivated after a disappointing Games thus far.
Kristina Smigun-Vaehi (EST) dropped out of the pursuit and did not race the relay. She should be rested and focused.
Justyna Kowalczyk (POL) does not have a gold yet, despite being one of the best in the world.
After that there are a number of women who could breakthrough. Therese Johaug (NOR) and Marianna Longa (ITA) are both skiing well, and Charlotte Kalla (SWE), while a better skater, should never be counted out.
Longa is not making any bold predictions on her expectations: “A good result for me. I don’t know about a medal.”
For the first time ever at the Olympics, skiers will be allowed to change skis during the race. FIS began experimenting with ski-switching two years ago on the World Cup, and it was used at the World Championships in Liberec. In the 30k, women can swap skis up to three times during the race.
This adds an extra element of strategy, and also increases the importance of wax staff.
Swapping skis takes time, but a fresh pair will run faster, and given the challenging and changing conditions at Whistler Olympic Park, kick can be tweaked.
While the course is technically 3x10km, it actually consists of two smaller loops, so skiers will pass through the stadium twice on each “lap.”
The US starts three skiers, Kikkan Randall, Morgan Arritola, and Holly Brooks. Randall has been on fire the last two weeks, and while a 30km classic is definitely not her strongest event, the top-30 is likely and the top-20 within reach.
Neither Arritola and Brooks will be in position for top-30 results. Brooks has struggled her last few races, and told media she is concerned about her health.
Arritola has had a run of average races for her current ability, but there is no sense of an impending breakout performance today.
Sarah Renner leads Canada in her final race. Renner will retire after the Games, and it would be a perfect story for her to go out with a medal. Unfortunately that is not going to happen. Renner can still battle for the top-10, and will likely get it.
Renner does not expect a tactical race, saying, “With the women there is not a lot of tactics. It is usually going as fast as you can. With the men there are more tactics, but I think women just want to work hard all the time.”
Renner sees Bjoergen, Kowalczyk and Longa as the race favorites.
Haag also points to the obvious choices – Bjoergen and Kowalczyk, but also expects good things from her teammate Anna Olsson.
The only other Canadian starter is Madeleine Williams.
Predictions
1. Marit Bjoergen (NOR) – How can you bet against her?
2. Justyna Kowalczyk (POL) – So strong, and the slow conditions could give her a chance against Bjoergen.
3. Kristina Smigun-Vaehi (EST) – Rested and ready.
4. Therese Johaug (NOR) – Small and quick will be a benefit in today’s conditions.
5. Aino-Kaisa Saarinen (FIN) – She has not skied poorly thus far, and will be in the hunt the whole way. Easily could swap with Smigun-Vaehi.
10. Sarah Renner (CAN) – Great last day for the Canadian veteran.
22. Kikkan Randall (USA) – She is skiing great and that will translate to this distance.
36. Morgan Arritola (USA) – Where she has been all Olympics.
44. Madeleine Williams (CAN) – Getting the experience.
48. Holly Brooks (USA) – Not on her game physically. This will be a long hard race.
Whistler, British Columbia – Olympic biathlon racing comes to a close today with the final event of the 2010 Olympic Games, the men’s 4×7.5km relay.
More so than any other event, good shooting is critical to success in the relay, and strong performances are needed form all four athletes.
In the biathlon relay, each skier gets three extra shots per shooting stage. This means a biathlete has eight bullets to hit five targets. The catch, however, is that those extra three are not in the clip, and need to be loaded manually. This takes precious seconds. If all targets have not been hit after eight shots, penalty laps are skied.
Generally, if a team has a skier doing laps, they are out of medal contention. In the women’s relay, France was an impressive exception to this rule. Marie Dorin seemingly took France out of the medal hunt with five misses and two penalty laps in peone shooting on the third leg. But the French women had amzing skis, and were posting very fast course times. They came back to take the silver.
They were the only team to finish in the top-11 to have even one penalty lap, let alone two.
It would be surprising to see a similar performance in today’s men’s race.
Norway starts in bib 1, but will be hard pressed to hold that position. It has been a rocky Olympics for the Norwegians, with Ole EInar Bjorndalen all over the map. Emil Svendsen is the real deal, but 40-year-old Halvard Hanavold and 21-year-old Tarjei Boe skiing the first two legs, will find it difficult to keep the team in contention. If they do, and Bjorndalen the legend shows up, a medal is a possibility.
The favorites come down to a roll of the dice between Austria, Russia, and France, with Germany as a dark horse.
France has two medalists, Vincent Jay and Martin Fourcade. Fourcade will need to do better than the three misses he overcame in the mass start, and his brother Simon, on the third leg will need to be on his game.
Austria is a good bet for a medal, and the gold medal favorite. With four skiers capable of top-10 finishes, they are very deep. Ski speed is rarely on issue with these guys, so if they hit their targets, they will be tough to beat.
The Russians won the World Championship relay in 2007 and 2008, but were dethroned by Norway last year in Korea. Led by Evgeny Ustyugov, the gold medalist in the mass start, they look to match the performance by the women’s team.
The US had high hopes for the relay entering the Games, but poor results over the last two weeks have lowered expectations. The team has finished as high as 5th on the World Cup, but has been plagued by inconsistency. Jay Hakkinen has been atrocious in Whistler, and with the exception of Jeremy Teela’s 9th in the weather-impacted sprint, results across the board have been disappointing.
Teela has been sick, and Tim Burke, a medal contender coming, has struggled on the range. His best result an 18th in the mass start.
Canada will field a team, racing athletes other than Jean Phillipe LeGuellec for the first time during the games. They are not expected to vie for a top spot.
Whistler, British Columbia – A day after the Swedish men skied to a clear victory in the men’s 4×10 relay, their female counterparts will attempt to match the feat in the 4x5km event.
They will have their work cut out for them, however, and will have a tough time overcoming a very strong Norwegian team.
Despite featuring multi-medalist Charlotte Kalla, Sweden is actually a long shot for a medal. Anna Haag, who teamed with Kalla in the team sprint, and also medaled in the pursuit, came down ill following the team sprint medal ceremony, and will not race. Even with Haag, Sweden would not be favored. Ida Ingemarsdotter and Magdalena Pajala are both sprint specialists and have only a handful of mediocre World Cup starts between them. Amazingly enough, the Swedish women have never won an Olympic relay medal.
The clear favorite is Norway. The team of Vibeke Skofterud, Therese Johaug, Kristin Stoermer Steira and Marit Bjoergen has the depth that the men’s team lacked. The top three skiers placed 1st, 4th and 6th in the 15km pursuit.
Skofterud is the weakest link, but if she can stay close, a run away victory is not out of the question. After Skofterud, the big question is Johaug. She has struggled to find top form all season, but broke out in the pursuit race. If she matches that performance, relay gold should return to Norway.
Normally, the Finns would be a contender, and they field their usual stacked team. But the 2010 Olympics have been a disaster thus far. Virpi Kuitunen has raced just once – without distinguishing herself, and Aino Kaisa Saarinen has been unable to break through. Word on the street is that several of the Finns are overtrained, explaining the rough stretch.
This leaves the field wide open. Russia will be strong as will Germany.
The Germans race young biathlete Miriam Goessner on the third leg. She has demonstrated blazing ski speed, and the 5km skate distance should suit her as well. And Claudia Nystad will be closing, already having won a gold in the team sprint. Nystad excels at the short distance skate events, so she will be a force in the anchor position.
Russia is solid 1-4 and will be in the hunt the whole way. They can’t match Norway’s overall firepower, but if everyone stays strong, and Johaug falters, gold is within reach.
Italy is short one skier in the quest for medals. Silvia Rupil on the 3rd leg does not strike fear into the hearts of competitors. And Sabina Valbusa is not the skier she once was. But Italy always seems to come up strong in the relay (men yesterday excepted). Follis and Longa opening are as good as anyone. And the short 5km distance means less time for a weaker skier to lose ground.
The Kazakh women could surprise with a top-6 within reach on a great day. Poland doesn’t have the depth, but Justyna Kowalczyk is racing (does she ever sit one out?), so they won’t be bringing up the rear.
The US women, even minus Liz Stephen, could also be a pleasant surprise. Kikkan Randall should be able to stay close on the opening leg. Morgan Arritola has not had her best races at Whistler, but she has also been quietly solid. And Caitlin Compton is in very good form. If she is recovered from the team sprint, her anchor leg could give the US their best relay result in years.
The team will need a good leg from Holly Brooks, in the second spot, to complete the performance.
Canada will not be in contention, without Sara Renner, who is resting up for the 30km. Chandra Crawford, Madeline Williams and Perianne Jones are not strong enough distance skiers to be competitive.
There are 16 teams competing, two more than in the men’s race.
Predictions
1. Norway – Bjoergen is on fire, and the rest of the team skiing fast.
2. Russia – Depth gets it done.
3. Germany – Nystad closes with conviction and wraps up another medal. Early legs can’t hang with the Russians
4. Italy – Third leg is their demise.
5. Finland – Saarinen will try to salvage another tough day for Finland.
6. Sweden – Kalla and Saarinen will both try to overcome weak teams.
7. USA – Unlike the men, the US has some of their better distance skiers on the course. Everyone comes through.
8. Poland – It is hard to rank any team with Justyna Kowalczyk this far down. If the no one breaks up the field early, this team could move up a spot or two.
9. Kazakhstan – A quietly solid team. It would not be a surprise to see them as high as 6th.
10. Ukraine – Schevchenko anchors. That is good for a couple of places.
11. France – French women have not been skiing well. They don’t have the distance siers to compete.
12. Japan – Two good skiers, two not-so-good skiers.
13. Slovenia – With Majdic they would have a solid team. Without, they will struggle.
14. Czech Republic – Several solid skiers will not be enough to do anything.
15. Canada – This is not Canada’s strongest team, but the crowd will love them anyway.
16. Belarus – Top finish ia distance race this Olympics – 39th.
The 4×10 relay. It is rarely raced outside of major championship events, yet is still the most prestigious cross-country event in existence. There are no World Cup points to be won, no individual glory, just the hopes and dreams of an entire country resting on the shoulders of four men.
Who can forget 1994, when Italy spoiled an otherwise perfect Games for host Norway in a race for the ages? Or the rematch in 2002 when Thomas Alsgaard prodded Christian Zorzi with his pole exhorting him to take the lead. Zorzi refused and Alsgaard took the time to stare the Italian anchor down in the finish pen before starting his gold medal celebration.
And of course Petter Northug has already put his stamp on the event, abusing Axel Teichmann in a come from behind win last year in Liberec.
Today’s field is deep and strong, with nine of the 14 teams starting having at least an outside chance at a medal.
It is hard to pick against Norway and Northug, but the this is not the same team that won last year in Liberec. Scramble skier Martin Sundby has not skied well during the Olympics, veteran Odd-Bjorn Hjelmeset has not race at all in Whistler and is no longer a dominating skier. He is a classic specialist, but will not be able to ski away from the other teams.
Lars Berger, the biathlete, on the third leg, is most critical. Sundby and Hjelmeset will be expected to keep Norway in the game. It will be up to Berger to be sure Northug is close enough to make his move. Berger also has not raced in some time. An excellent skater, he will need to be in top form as he could have some ground to make up.
Berger told Norwegian media that his selection to the team was because other skiers had “failed.” Most top teams have one potential weak link. The problem for Norway is that they have three.
Sweden looks to continue an excellent Olympics, the only disappointment being Emil Joensson’s result in the sprint. If 1st skier Daniel Richardsson stays with the leaders, the trio that dominated the pursuit – Olsson, Soedergren, and Hellner – will be in position to make a run for the gold.
A Hellner-Northug battle would dramatic to say the least. Northug has talked trash about the Swede’s ability to hang. This would be an opportunity to see if that is true.
Germany lacks the flash of the Scandinavian teams, but is quietly solid 1-4. For the first time in several years, Axel Teichmann will not close for the Germans, meaning another matchup with Northug will not come to be.
Tobias Angerer, just off a medal in the pursuit, has been handed that task. He cannot finish with Northug, so the Germans will have to hope they are clear entering the final 10km.
The Canadians seem to be taking a similar strategy. George Grey is anchoring, but even after his 8th place in the pursuit, he is still is not the obvious choice. With Kershaw, always very strong in the opening leg, Harvey, and Babikov, the Canadians will look to get free of Norway early, and avoid a sprint finish.
With four skiers in the top-16 in the pursuit, Canada should be very competitive for a medal. The men are skiing very well and will have the crowd on their side.
France, Switzerland, Italy, Russia and Finland will also be in the hunt.
Italy has DiCenta and Piller Cottrer but are weak in legs 1 and 4. Checchi is not as strong a classic skier in the opening leg, and it is hard to imagine the ageless Christian Zorzi having pulling another one out. Zorzi anchored the gold medal team in 2006, but he will need a big lead to hold of Norway and Sweden.
France could be a dark horse. Vincent Vittoz has been shut out so far, and has something to prove. Jean Mar Gaillard, Maurice Mgnificat and Emmanuel Jonnier are all top-10 World Cup skiers. The French have not performed yet and have been the victims of bad luck. It is beginning to seem like 2010 is not their year.
Switzerland will be held back by Remo Fischer, who is clearly not in top form. If he can break out of his slump, Dario Cologna skis the anchor. Cologna won the 15k, but has not been able to do anything since.
Finland surprised last year at World Championships, but the Olympics have been a disaster for both the men and the women. On paper they are strong, but they are not in Olympic form right now.
And finally, there are the Russians – Pankratov and Sedov in the first two legs are the key. Sedov is a talent, but very young, and Pankratov not at the level of teammates Legkov and Vylegzhanin.
Predictions
1. Sweden – They are all skiing well, and Olsson, Soedergren get the gap on Norway.
2. Norway – Northug starts back in 5th, and puts the hurt on Germany at the end.
3. Germany – Deep, solid team needs a brilliant performance from one skier for victory. They won’t get it.
4. Canada – They make a run for it, but it comes down to the last 5k, and they can’t hold on.
5. Russia – Need career performances from Sedov and Pankratov. Too much to ask.
6. Switzerland – Cologna will kill it, but Fischer will dig too big a hole.
7. France – While deep, luck is not on their side. Vittoz will continue to be disappointed.
8. Italy – DiCenta and Piller Cottrer will get it done. Zorzi won’t.
9. Czech Republic – A solid team, and one that could surprise. Bauer is racing, the 3rd leg, and Koukal closing. They could easily be in the hunt if the other guys race well.
10. Kazakhstan – These guys could finish higher. They need one more, and Poltaranin is young.
11. Finland – They are not racing fast, and there is no reason to think that will change.
12. Estonia – No Veerpalu means no result.
13. Slovakia – Two good skiers in Batory and Bajcicak.
14. USA – without Southam or Freeman, these guys will be off the back early. They will be lucky to avoid getting lapped.
Petter Northug (NOR) qualifying in the sprint earlier this week.
The cross-country men will have a difficult time matching the women in today’s 30km pursuit. An exciting fast paced race featuring a photo finish for third highlighted another beautiful day at Whistler Olympic Park.
The men’s race will most likely remain tightly packed, with a lead group of 20+ for much of the race. While the Whistler course features several large climbs, there is significant rest after each. This coupled with flat rolling terrain will make it difficult for anyone to break away early. And given that the skate course is relatively mellow, we should see a group sprint for the medals.
This makes Petter Northug (NOR) the clear favorite. His finishing speed at the end of a long race is unmatched, and his ability to position himself for the final run is impressive.
After Northug, any number of a dozen or more men could win a medal. Bauer and Piller-Cottrer would normally be at the top of the list, but both prefer climbs, and Bauer is not much of a sprinter. If the unexpected happens, and a small group breaks away, expect both these men to be involved.
Marcus Hellner (SWE), gunning for the gold in the 15km and finishing 4th, will be looking for redemption, but he has never placed in the top-30 in a 30km World Cup pursuit. His strength his skating, so if he can make it through the classic without giving up too much, he could have an outside shot, but most likely he will need to get his medal in the relay.
Maxim Vylegzhanin (RUS) is a dangerous all around skier. He tends to be inconsistent, but can handle both classic and skate with aplomb, and the distance shouldn’t bother him.
Others to watch include the Frenchman Vincent Vittoz – a master of the 30k, and an excellent big race skier, Matti Heikkinen (FIN), who has battled illness this year but is rounding into form, and his teammate Sami Jauhojaervi, another good all-rounder with a strong kick.
The US is lead by Kris Freeman, hoping to bounce back from a disappointing 15km. Freeman’s best event has always been the 15km, and the distance and sprint finishes of the pursuit are ideal. But when on, Freeman can ski with anyone in the world. Because of the finish, it is hard to imagine Freeman on the podium, but if his fitness is in the right place, a top-10 is within reach.
James Southam is the only other American starter. He was 33rd in this race at World Championships last year, and is capable of cracking the top-30. He did not have his best race in the 15km, but prefers the longer distances.
The Canadian team fields a strong contingent of Ivan Babikov, Alex Harvey, Devon Kershaw, and George Grey. All four can place in the top-20, and Harvey and Kershaw could both crack the top-10. Babikov appears to be in the best form right now, but he does not have good finishing speed, putting him at a big disadvantage.
The Canadians have something prove, and their biggest obstacle good be themselves. Babikov will race smart, and likely Harvey to. Grey and Kershaw can’t let themselves get carried away early – especially Kershaw who has a penchant for leading these races in the first 15km. He has the fitness and skill to ski with the best, but not to set the pace.
Ben Koons (NZL), a member of the Maine Winter Sports Center will also start. Koons was prohibited from starting in the 15km due to high hemoglobin levels. This is his Olympic debut.
Whatever happens, it is likely to be exciting – though if that pack does not break up and remains at 20+ for the whole race, it will not feature the drama of the women’s event. The temperature is already 45 degrees at the venue, and the sun is beating down. This will make for a soft course – the men race four laps in each the classic and skate – though the the two courses are separate. This will not favor heavy skiers. Additionally, hydration will be key, and feeds will be frequent.
The Whistler weather continues to surprise – in a good way. For the third consecutive day the sky is clear and the sun strong. Temperatures are climbing rapidly and will be well above freezing at race time.
The women’s 15km “pursuit” is set to start at 1:00PM local time with a field of 68. Waxing for the classic portion should be relatively straightforward klister, and by the time the skate leg roles around, the course will likely be softening.
Both Canada and the US will start fours skiers each in the mass start event. Canadian veteran Sara Renner leads the way at bib 28. Renner has something to prove after a disappointing sprint in which a skier failed to track for her, potentially keeping her out of the heats.
Daria Gaiazova, coming off a strong performance in the sprint is Canada’s next strongest skier. Her first Olympics are off to a good start, though she will be hard pressed to match her 22nd place sprint finish.
Madeleine Williams and Perianne Jones are the final two starters for the Canadian team. Neither is likely to crack the top-30.
Olympic rookies Liz Stephen and Morgan Arritola lead the US. Arritola skied a solid race in the 10km freestyle, finishing 34th. Stephen struggled, and both women are capable of skiing in the top-25 on a good day.
Holly Brooks and Caitlin Compton round out the US team. Compton was the fastest woman in the 10km, placing 30th, but is a stronger skater. If she can hang in the classic leg, she has the potential to improve on that 30th.
Brooks is the only US skier to start both the first two cross-country races. She will be hoping to improve on 38th place sprint finish.
The race favorites include the usual suspects, minus Petra Majdic (SLO), who has been hospitalized with broken ribs and a puncture lung after crashing during sprint training. She went on to win a bronze medal, but her Olympics are over.
But the field is still plenty strong. Justyna Kowalczyk (POL) is always a force, but the course does not play to her strengths – steep extended climbs. She will be hard pressed to break away from the field today – but she never ceases to amaze.
One skier to watch is Anna Haag (SWE). Haag finished an impressive 4th in the 10km, and is a stronger classic skier than teammate Charlotte Kalla, who won that event. Both women should be in contention for a medal.
Marit Bjoergen (NOR), the bronze medalist in the 10km and winner of the gold in the sprint, is clearly in top form. She will be racing every event and is a medal contender in each. The pressure is off now that she has a gold, so she will be relaxed and confident.
That is not the case for the Finnish team, which has been shut out so far. It would be a major upset for Aino Kaisa Saarinen to leave the Games without a medal. While the Finns will have a strong relay team, this is her best chance as an individual.
Virpi Kuitunen (FIN), who did not start the 10k, is also sitting out today’s race. An excellent all-around skier, it is unclear why she is not racing. Her health may not be good. Riita-Liisa Roponen is the second Finnish starter, and while a medal is probably not in the cards, the top-10 is reasonable.
Other skiers who will be in the hunt for the medals include Kristin Stoermer Steira (NOR) and Arianna Follis (ITA). According to Norwegian Team Leader Age Skinstad, Steira is showing good shape and was pleased with her 10km race. She was 8th in that event, and prefers the longer distances.
Russians Irina Khazova and Evgenia Medvedeva are also strong, though Khazova has historically performed better in the 10km individual start events and Medvedeva has only two World Cup podium finishes since 2005 and none this year.
![Sadie Bjornsen of APU/USST (r) edges Sophie Caldwell (SMST2) and CXC's Jennie Bender (c) in the 1.3 k freestyle sprint final at U.S. nationals on Tuesday in Soldier Hollow. Caldwell was second and Bender placed third.](http://fasterskier.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2013/01/A-Final-finish-lunge.jpg")
![Fitzgerald showing podium form in the skate.](http://fasterskier.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2011/11/fitz-skate-1-web.jpg")
![Sylvan Ellefson](http://fasterskier.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2012/12/IMG_3116.jpg")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2012/01/DSC_5143.jpg" "Jessie Diggins (CXC) comes out of her tuck and free skates into the stadium in the A Final with teammate Jennie Bender just behind.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2012/01/DSC_5158.jpg" "The men's A Final enters the stadium, Torin Koos (BSF) leads Dakota Blackhorse-von Jess (Bend Endurance Academy), Lars Flora (APU), Sylvan Ellefson (SSCV/Team Homegrown), Karl Nygren (CXC) and Tyler Kornfield (UAF). Photo: James Doucett.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2012/01/Diggins-2_0-Copy.jpg" "CXC leading the way. Photo: Toko.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2011/01/SMF8065.jpg" "Tad Elliott (CXC) 30K skate at US Nationals 2011 Photo: Flying Point Road.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2012/01/photo3.jpg" "Athletes will continue downhill from the original sprint course.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2011/11/randall191111al030.jpg" "Kikkan Randall (USA), on her way to eighth place in the World Cup opener.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2011/11/northug191111al231.jpg" "Petter Northug (NOR) grabs 2nd in the World Cup opener. FIS world cup cross country, 15km men, Sjusjoen (NOR)")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2011/10/23-2.jpg" "23 Teams in 23 Days")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2011/02/sprint-men-pellegrino-4179-we.jpg" "Federico Pellegrino (ITA), 2nd qualifier.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2010/02/781714252_2UbJV-L.jpg" "Giorgio Di Centa happily stands with an Italian flag draped over his shoulders.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2011/03/lahti-cologna-web.jpg" "Dario Cologna (bib 1) leads the pursuit at World Championships.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2011/03/lahti-women-web.jpg" "Kowalczyk, Longa, and Saarinen battle in the 15km pursuit in Oslo.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2010/02/bi-berger.jpg" "Tora Berger (NOR) on course")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2010/02/svendsen-range.jpg" "Emil Svendsen (NOR) on the range for prone.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2010/02/teela-bjorndalen-range.jpg" "Teela and Bjorndalen on the range.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2010/02/ferry-ski.jpg" "Bjorn Ferry (SWE) - Gold Medal")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2010/02/neuner-good.jpg" "Magdalena Neuner (GER) races to Olympic gold!")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2011/01/Spector080111cm014.jpg" "Laura Spector IBU world cup biathlon, sprint women, Oberhof (GER)")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2010/03/RandallLastRise.jpg" "Kikkan Randall 30 K")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2010/02/relay-babs.jpg" "Ivan Babikov")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2010/03/IMG_6191_2.jpg" "Andy Newell")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2010/01/TadElliot1.jpg" "Tad Elliot (USA)")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2010/02/relay-bjoergen.jpg" "Marit Bjoergen will gun for her fourth gold and fifth medal of the 2010 Olympics.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2011/02/suit-kowal.jpg" "Justyna Kowalczyk (POL) does not have a gold yet, despite being one of the best in the world.")
![](http://images.fasterskier.com/2010/02/northug.jpg" "Petter Northug (NOR) qualifying in the sprint earlier this week.")