Category: XCFeeds

Kuzzy and Karl enjoying the first ski of the year

There is a dusting of snow in town but we headed up to the South Plateau for an easy classic ski this morning.  We skied in a decent track on Whiskey Trail.  Skis ran through to the ground every once in a while and it is definitely rock ski skiing. Maybe 5 inches up high on the Plateau.

Jason Cork, which tracks are his?

We followed these tracks for 6k on the road today. No bear, but the tracks were fresh.

And we’re off…!  The first really big weekend of racing is underway, and there’s already some good signs for the US, with Kikkan Randall winning the freestyle sprint in Muonio and Ida Sargent finishing a strong 11th.  The weekend continues with more distance races in Muonio (FIN), Beitostoelen (NOR) and Bruksvallarna (SWE).  World Cup action finally starts next weekend.

In keeping with the start of the ski season, there was a bit more than usual on our plate here at Statistical Skier this week:

• I finished up my USST previews by reviewing the data on the big three: Kikkan Randall, Andrew Newell and Kris Freeman.
• Since Christopher Tassava mentioned that I might be able to shed some light on variability in sprinting in the FasterSkier podcast last week, I attempted to do just that.
• Since I’m pretty fired up for some fantasy skiing (as there isn’t much cross country skiing to be done near where I live), I provided a little athlete assessment to help people pick their teams for the SkiTrax fantasy skiing contest.

Related posts:

1. <Week In Review: Friday Sep 3rd
2. <Week In Review: Friday Sep 17th
3. <Week In Review: Friday Sep 24th

a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3iel5M82I/AAAAAAAAFRA/o89VScZ8qAM/s1600/IMG_9513.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3iel5M82I/AAAAAAAAFRA/o89VScZ8qAM/s400/IMG_9513.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538832131931566946″ //aMost of the team ran a 3 km loop on our ski trails today and bounded the hills. The first loop was L3 and the next two loops were L4. It was a beautiful day and a good tough workout.br /Issy did a shorter run with less intensity because she is running in the New England XC Championships tomorrow. Charlie and Nick did some classic intervals and looked strong.br /This afternoon we did some agility and strength. br /Enjoy the pictures :)br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3h9YHU87I/AAAAAAAAFQ4/zxvSewMoQ8Q/s1600/IMG_9515.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3h9YHU87I/AAAAAAAAFQ4/zxvSewMoQ8Q/s400/IMG_9515.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538831561297032114″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3hjeUAcgI/AAAAAAAAFQw/682DfxDh3UI/s1600/IMG_9522.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 337px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3hjeUAcgI/AAAAAAAAFQw/682DfxDh3UI/s400/IMG_9522.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538831116284228098″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3hKZ9QTGI/AAAAAAAAFQo/tWNULvuQY0M/s1600/IMG_9529.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3hKZ9QTGI/AAAAAAAAFQo/tWNULvuQY0M/s400/IMG_9529.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538830685618326626″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3gpjZaNUI/AAAAAAAAFQg/5Q8isddhcvQ/s1600/IMG_9536.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 260px; height: 400px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3gpjZaNUI/AAAAAAAAFQg/5Q8isddhcvQ/s400/IMG_9536.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538830121216652610″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3gTpuiLvI/AAAAAAAAFQY/uO_EwHxqd0s/s1600/IMG_9546.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3gTpuiLvI/AAAAAAAAFQY/uO_EwHxqd0s/s400/IMG_9546.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538829744958746354″ //ahuh?br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3fldYbX_I/AAAAAAAAFQQ/oe-XxuUsfTA/s1600/IMG_9550.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 381px; height: 400px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3fldYbX_I/AAAAAAAAFQQ/oe-XxuUsfTA/s400/IMG_9550.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538828951370817522″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3fM0lBfhI/AAAAAAAAFQI/RZK5MkJ6baA/s1600/IMG_9552.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3fM0lBfhI/AAAAAAAAFQI/RZK5MkJ6baA/s400/IMG_9552.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538828528100933138″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3e1Ve0qzI/AAAAAAAAFQA/OLI2im6knGM/s1600/IMG_9553.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 339px; height: 400px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TN3e1Ve0qzI/AAAAAAAAFQA/OLI2im6knGM/s400/IMG_9553.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538828124616436530″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/4680416899705879324-3875324170896653997?l=smsxc.blogspot.com’ alt=” //div

SkiTrax and FIS are holding a fantasy World Cup contest, roughly modeled after the very popular fantasy baseball or fantasy football competitions that we all know and love.  Basically, you pick four men and four women (plus a “bonus” man and woman, from outside the top 15 rankings from last year), and then your “team” accumulates points over the season according to a fairly involved point system.

This is the first of three such contests, apparently, the other two focusing on the Tour de Ski and the Oslo World Championships.

Fantasy sports competitions are simply awash in numbers.  People can spend hours pouring over stats on their players.  It can get pretty involved.  I’ve decided not to be selfish and use my data and statistical know-how to utterly dominate this contest, which quite clearly, I could.  (Just kidding!)  Instead, I’m going to be generous and provide a little simple analysis that might help you decide how to pick your own team.

I’ll save a more detailed discussion of the the rules for awarding points for later in this post.  The rules themselves can be found at the first link above, and they are fairly complex (and a tad ambiguous, if you ask me).  There are basically two kinds of points,

1. Points awarded to each individual skier based on their race performances
2. Points awarded to your entire team of skiers based on some group characteristic

What I’m going to do here is calculate, as best as I can, the points that each athlete would have contributed to a team based on last season’s results, so I’m ignoring type (2) points.  This requires a few simple modifications,

• Points for OWG will be swapped in for WSC results
• For simplicity, I’m going to ignore the U23 bonus and the “abandonment” penalty for starting but not completing the World Cup Final
• Doping penalties shouldn’t be an issue, since my database has already had those skier’s results removed

There are some complicated issues that come up in order to actually calculate these, involving what to do about ties, and the order in which we apply various point rules.  After a few emails with the SkiTrax folks, though, I think I’ve figured it all out and here’s what you get for the men:

SkiTrax Fantasy Values: Men 09-10

And here’s what you get for the women:

SkiTrax Fantasy Values: Women 09-10

Hmmm.  Not surprisingly, Petter Northug is the most valuable fantasy skier.  Things are slightly less lopsided on the women’s side, but not by much, with Justyna Kowalczyk and Marit Bjoergen running away with it.  What’s happening here is that a skier gets bonus points at the close of each race day if they are the overall, distance or sprint WC points leader.  You get 10 points for the overall, and 5 for the distance and sprint titles.  But it often works out that the WC point leader position doesn’t change all that much, thanks to the enormous weight given to finishing on the podium in WC points (the point values are 100, 80, 60).  Once one or two skiers pull away from the field in WC points, it’s nearly impossible for anyone to catch them.  For instance, note how valuable Petra Majdic is despite not racing for much of the season.

The other thing to note is that the athlete point values I’ve listed above are not the athlete’s WC point totals.  Points in the game are not the same as WC points (although they are roughly correlated).

(Just in case you’re worried, I’m only awarding a distance World Cup leader bonus on days when there was actually a distance race, and similarly for sprinting, per SkiTrax’s instructions.  So you don’t get credit for remaining in the lead for the distance WC on a day with a sprint race.)

The problem is that Northug (and Kowalczyk/Bjoergen) racked up many, many days leading both the distance and overall WC race, and sometimes all three.  In fact, nearly half of Northug’s points come solely from this source.  So he’d still be quite a ways in front of Marcus Hellner, but not absurdly far ahead.

While it might seem odd that the Tour de Ski and World Championships receive so little weight here, recall that they have separate contests for the Tour de Ski and World Championships, so that’s probably the reason.

Basically what this means for you is that there is a huge penalty for not including the eventual WC overall winner (male and female) on your team.  This person will likely have spent a lot of time as both the WC overall leader and the WC distance leader, or even all three.  And they will rack up massive amounts of points for it.

Now, none of this renders the game moot.  Far from it.  We don’t know who’s going to win the WC this year.  It’s possible that one person won’t manage to dominate the points so completely, although I sort of doubt it.  Personally, I have a hard time believing that the overall WC points leader will be anyone other than Northug, Hellner, Bauer or Cologna for the men or anyone other than Bjoergen, Kowalczyk, or perhaps Kalla, Majdic or Saarinen for the women.

So what it comes down to is whether you think the WC leaders will come from this group or not.  If you think they will, you should probably just pick these skiers for your top four.  If you think some dark horse is going to sweep in (one of the Russian men or women? Follis?) you should swap one of the “obvious” skiers out for them.

This makes your choice of the fifth man/woman on your team more interesting.  You have to pick someone who was not in the top 15 in WC points standings last season.  This obviously involves a bit of guesswork about who might ski particularly well this year.  My tables should be a good guide, assuming that past performance is a good indicator.

Finally, remember that I’ve ignored points that are awarded based on characteristics of the “group”, and you might also want to watch out for skiers you think might start, but not finish, all the events in the WC final as they will incur a penalty.

As for which U23 skiers are the most valuable, I’ll leave that research to you.  I’ve got to keep some sort of an edge, if I want to win!

Have fun and good luck!

Related posts:

1. <Variability In World Cup Ski Racers
2. <How Well Prepared Are World Cup Rookies? (Part 1a: Distance)
3. <How Well Prepared Are World Cup Rookies? (Part 2a: Sprint)

Kris Freeman is simply the best distance skier in the US at the moment, male or female.  In fact, he probably has been for at least the past 4 years or so.

Unfortunately, that means he’s under a lot of pressure to produce quality results, medals in particular.  That’s not terribly fair, in a cosmic sense, but I suppose that’s life.

One consequence of these expectations has been that he can come in for quite a bit of criticism when he doesn’t perform well.  From what I’ve heard about him, he’s probably harder on himself than most anyone else.  And in any case, I seriously doubt that much of the disappointment surrounding him in terms of “near misses” or “missed opportunities” is truly deserved.  Learning how to train and race effectively with diabetes simply makes everything he does harder.

All that aside, let’s look at how he’s fared over the years:

Freeman has actually been slowly returning to form over the past few season, despite the occasional very bad race.  An interesting thing to notice here is that Freeman’s career to date can be neatly split into two halves: before and after the summer of 2004.  Don’t believe me?  How about if I highlight those two periods:

The lines are estimated quantile trends (25%, 50% or median and 75%).  That’s a pretty stark difference.  It’s almost as though something happened that caused Freeman to redo much of the training and development work he’d accomplished between 2001 and 2004.  It also appears as though the 2004-2005 season marked the start of Freeman’s “highly volatile” days, which he’s remarked upon himself (indicated by the quantile lines being more spread out).

The short version of this is that I’m fairly optimistic about Freeman for this season.  It seems like he might have clawed his way back to where he was in 2003-2004, despite his issues with consistency, and he’s had some promising indicators in a few time trials this fall.

Another reason for optimism stems from the fact that Freeman has reached the top five in a major international race precisely five times and every single one of those races was a 15km classic event.  I believe there are no less than three 15km classic races on the schedule this winter.

Note that I’ve switched to rank rather than FIS points on the y axis here.  It almost seems like Freeman was having more luck with skating between 2006-2007 and then things reversed between 2008-2010 somewhat, but that might be stretching the data a bit thin.

In any case, I’m betting that Freeman will crack the top five again this season in at least one of the 15km classic races.  As for a medal at World Championships, who knows?  That’s a tall order, but if he really does have his insulin dosing dialed in, I’d say the chances are better than in any previous season we’ve seen.

Related posts:

1. <Victims & Nemeses: Kris Freeman
2. <USST Preview: Liz Stephen & Morgan Arritola
3. <USST Preview: Simi Hamilton & Noah Hoffman

A

a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxRLErGCAI/AAAAAAAAFPw/JuboTbWUgM0/s1600/DSC_0015.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxRLErGCAI/AAAAAAAAFPw/JuboTbWUgM0/s400/DSC_0015.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538390892433770498″ //aWhat a beautiful November day! Here are pictures from our morning workout. The Devo kids had a day off from school so they joined us for some technique work, agility and speed. SMS alum Matt Whitcomb joined us for the morning and shared a bit of his enthusiasm and wisdom. A good time was had by all. Thanks to Lilly for taking the pictures and to Matt for visiting!br /Click on any picture to enlarge it.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxQ85qxoBI/AAAAAAAAFPo/QKjO1W0uoJY/s1600/DSC_0018.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxQ85qxoBI/AAAAAAAAFPo/QKjO1W0uoJY/s400/DSC_0018.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538390648961474578″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxQy5g3L7I/AAAAAAAAFPg/K04vDx7pjQU/s1600/DSC_0021.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxQy5g3L7I/AAAAAAAAFPg/K04vDx7pjQU/s400/DSC_0021.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538390477121204146″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxQnfWLdfI/AAAAAAAAFPY/3wF9kDYTCJQ/s1600/DSC_0023.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxQnfWLdfI/AAAAAAAAFPY/3wF9kDYTCJQ/s400/DSC_0023.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538390281118512626″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxQZGY4awI/AAAAAAAAFPQ/osiv0arb_LA/s1600/DSC_0029.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxQZGY4awI/AAAAAAAAFPQ/osiv0arb_LA/s400/DSC_0029.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538390033900792578″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxQNw-rYrI/AAAAAAAAFPI/rZEdCgqSgiI/s1600/DSC_0052.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxQNw-rYrI/AAAAAAAAFPI/rZEdCgqSgiI/s400/DSC_0052.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538389839175180978″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxQE7CyCdI/AAAAAAAAFPA/vqRLjaAQPWM/s1600/DSC_0057.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxQE7CyCdI/AAAAAAAAFPA/vqRLjaAQPWM/s400/DSC_0057.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538389687257926098″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxP5FLotcI/AAAAAAAAFO4/WKvd7fZhj7Y/s1600/DSC_0061.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxP5FLotcI/AAAAAAAAFO4/WKvd7fZhj7Y/s400/DSC_0061.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538389483820987842″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxPu7G2sfI/AAAAAAAAFOw/72OQNOP_Kfg/s1600/DSC_0068.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxPu7G2sfI/AAAAAAAAFOw/72OQNOP_Kfg/s400/DSC_0068.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538389309317886450″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxPlnbYRkI/AAAAAAAAFOo/ATRxxwLOVV8/s1600/DSC_0069.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxPlnbYRkI/AAAAAAAAFOo/ATRxxwLOVV8/s400/DSC_0069.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538389149416441410″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxPYX4DPDI/AAAAAAAAFOg/AytJ-9SBjQU/s1600/DSC_0071.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxPYX4DPDI/AAAAAAAAFOg/AytJ-9SBjQU/s400/DSC_0071.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538388921903430706″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxPO_CEb6I/AAAAAAAAFOY/C-A9D70MlSg/s1600/DSC_0072.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxPO_CEb6I/AAAAAAAAFOY/C-A9D70MlSg/s400/DSC_0072.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538388760615743394″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxOwWV2A_I/AAAAAAAAFOQ/xisLcgyN4iA/s1600/IMG_9350.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxOwWV2A_I/AAAAAAAAFOQ/xisLcgyN4iA/s400/IMG_9350.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538388234296755186″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxOoflGfuI/AAAAAAAAFOI/L1_ASF2p1WU/s1600/IMG_9348.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxOoflGfuI/AAAAAAAAFOI/L1_ASF2p1WU/s400/IMG_9348.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538388099337715426″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxOf4cAJcI/AAAAAAAAFOA/2wn2a8t15Vc/s1600/IMG_9362.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxOf4cAJcI/AAAAAAAAFOA/2wn2a8t15Vc/s400/IMG_9362.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538387951391614402″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxOTTvwF4I/AAAAAAAAFN4/8yE_YEYH_CQ/s1600/IMG_9364.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxOTTvwF4I/AAAAAAAAFN4/8yE_YEYH_CQ/s400/IMG_9364.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538387735383906178″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxOHYY8WVI/AAAAAAAAFNw/ssATqhUta_M/s1600/IMG_9374.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxOHYY8WVI/AAAAAAAAFNw/ssATqhUta_M/s400/IMG_9374.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538387530471987538″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxN6WLS9nI/AAAAAAAAFNo/lj9oJpT_7Ws/s1600/IMG_9397.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxN6WLS9nI/AAAAAAAAFNo/lj9oJpT_7Ws/s400/IMG_9397.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538387306539578994″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxNwY3pcsI/AAAAAAAAFNg/w8l6b7ziWFA/s1600/IMG_9399.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxNwY3pcsI/AAAAAAAAFNg/w8l6b7ziWFA/s400/IMG_9399.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538387135463781058″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxNlhKG8XI/AAAAAAAAFNY/1vMkUOJeqAI/s1600/IMG_9407.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxNlhKG8XI/AAAAAAAAFNY/1vMkUOJeqAI/s400/IMG_9407.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538386948710134130″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxNbpQ6rUI/AAAAAAAAFNQ/CUpVuPIZrXk/s1600/IMG_9408.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxNbpQ6rUI/AAAAAAAAFNQ/CUpVuPIZrXk/s400/IMG_9408.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538386779087482178″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxNNL-Up4I/AAAAAAAAFNI/aVSSjgji4G8/s1600/IMG_9409.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxNNL-Up4I/AAAAAAAAFNI/aVSSjgji4G8/s400/IMG_9409.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538386530706696066″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxNC1s1jTI/AAAAAAAAFNA/BfEa_1MflYw/s1600/IMG_9410.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxNC1s1jTI/AAAAAAAAFNA/BfEa_1MflYw/s400/IMG_9410.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538386352929082674″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxM3zfPIYI/AAAAAAAAFM4/_C6sW5p_jA8/s1600/IMG_9422.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxM3zfPIYI/AAAAAAAAFM4/_C6sW5p_jA8/s400/IMG_9422.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538386163356606850″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxMsGF0ffI/AAAAAAAAFMw/6ZZYQSwtqto/s1600/IMG_9431.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxMsGF0ffI/AAAAAAAAFMw/6ZZYQSwtqto/s400/IMG_9431.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538385962191846898″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxMRKB0N_I/AAAAAAAAFMo/drVBEt2YXLg/s1600/IMG_9438.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxMRKB0N_I/AAAAAAAAFMo/drVBEt2YXLg/s400/IMG_9438.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538385499392325618″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxMCBZHk0I/AAAAAAAAFMg/xpk6GtEJhHY/s1600/IMG_9439.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxMCBZHk0I/AAAAAAAAFMg/xpk6GtEJhHY/s400/IMG_9439.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538385239376106306″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxL0Ymsr1I/AAAAAAAAFMY/tmbaVPWPAGc/s1600/IMG_9445.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxL0Ymsr1I/AAAAAAAAFMY/tmbaVPWPAGc/s400/IMG_9445.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538385005088911186″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxLj4YoOqI/AAAAAAAAFMQ/obLG1JqBsDg/s1600/IMG_9447.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxLj4YoOqI/AAAAAAAAFMQ/obLG1JqBsDg/s400/IMG_9447.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538384721562057378″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxLWzA209I/AAAAAAAAFMI/1w0anFe5ws4/s1600/IMG_9449.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxLWzA209I/AAAAAAAAFMI/1w0anFe5ws4/s400/IMG_9449.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538384496781874130″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxLIiYZnXI/AAAAAAAAFMA/eR5NEk_8g60/s1600/IMG_9451.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxLIiYZnXI/AAAAAAAAFMA/eR5NEk_8g60/s400/IMG_9451.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538384251799051634″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxK6GwIyVI/AAAAAAAAFL4/_DT688HNJ-s/s1600/IMG_9461.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxK6GwIyVI/AAAAAAAAFL4/_DT688HNJ-s/s400/IMG_9461.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538384003864250706″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxKsNhrg_I/AAAAAAAAFLw/D9Rg-xPESpE/s1600/IMG_9473.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxKsNhrg_I/AAAAAAAAFLw/D9Rg-xPESpE/s400/IMG_9473.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538383765164491762″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxKbTI-o_I/AAAAAAAAFLo/ypo_i9tuI6A/s1600/IMG_9482.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxKbTI-o_I/AAAAAAAAFLo/ypo_i9tuI6A/s400/IMG_9482.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538383474613724146″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxKPrvkVQI/AAAAAAAAFLg/ncqXMUtV6uo/s1600/IMG_9484.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxKPrvkVQI/AAAAAAAAFLg/ncqXMUtV6uo/s400/IMG_9484.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538383275059598594″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxKDZD2MpI/AAAAAAAAFLY/KQ8GPD-g78E/s1600/IMG_9498.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxKDZD2MpI/AAAAAAAAFLY/KQ8GPD-g78E/s400/IMG_9498.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538383063885951634″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxJ6as7iOI/AAAAAAAAFLQ/75POt7qhQts/s1600/IMG_9499.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxJ6as7iOI/AAAAAAAAFLQ/75POt7qhQts/s400/IMG_9499.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538382909707880674″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxJwjnl0SI/AAAAAAAAFLI/cHKwawRKkXE/s1600/IMG_9502.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxJwjnl0SI/AAAAAAAAFLI/cHKwawRKkXE/s400/IMG_9502.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538382740302713122″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxJkfQt3KI/AAAAAAAAFLA/qJYKYAEA-GM/s1600/IMG_9511.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxJkfQt3KI/AAAAAAAAFLA/qJYKYAEA-GM/s400/IMG_9511.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538382532974599330″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxJTt57YkI/AAAAAAAAFK4/9CWyQXTX0s8/s1600/IMG_9508.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TNxJTt57YkI/AAAAAAAAFK4/9CWyQXTX0s8/s400/IMG_9508.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5538382244847772226″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/4680416899705879324-9136892230621650942?l=smsxc.blogspot.com’ alt=” //div