FasterSkier

Category: XCFeeds

A collection of live feeds from cross-country ski blogs around the web.

  • Top 10 Qualification vs. Making The Final

    This is a follow-up post to an earlier entry where I noted an off-hand comment by US coach Chris Grover that when Kikkan Randall qualifies in the top ten in a sprint race, that this is a good sign that she has a good chance of making it to the finals.

    I looked at some data and concluded that it mostly supported his claim, but that the sample sizes were small enough to not mean much, from a statistical point of view.  It was suggested in the comments that I look at this overall, for all skiers and see what, if any, relationship there might be.

    Generally speaking, I think we shouldn’t be terribly surprised about a correlation between one’s performance in qualification and one’s performance in the heats.  It just makes sense that, on average, the faster sprinters will do better in qualification.

    What we’re interested in here is in quantifying this somewhat arbitrary, but interesting, cutoff of finishing in the top ten in qualification.  First up is a modified version of the plots I made for Kikkan Randall and Andrew Newell in the previous post:

    This covers all sprint races since 2005-2006.  I’ve blocked off the various regions using some overlapping rectangles to indicate the top ten in qualification and the top six in the finals, and the various combinations of those two conditions.  The size of the dot represents how often that particular combination of ranks occurred across all athletes.

    There are a few rare instances where someone qualified above 30th but eventually made it into the top thirty.  This is due to the occasional disqualification or dropping out prior to the heats.

    The somewhat boring formal statistics going here is that we’ve defined two binary variables (top ten in qualification or not, and top six in final rank or not) and the question is whether there’s a relationship between the two.  There are all sorts of ways you could approach this (two-way tables and chi-squared tests, ANOVAs, generalized linear model, etc.) but I’m not going to bore you with the details.

    Let’s just calculate the raw proportions.  The proportion of times men who qualified in the top ten went on to the finals is 0.396.  The proportion of times men who qualified outside the top ten advanced to the finals was only 0.102.  For the women, the difference grows larger: 0.48 versus 0.06.

    This also provides some useful context for the equivalent numbers for specific skiers.  For instance, the same proportions for just Kikkan Randall are 0.636 and 0.053.  Similarly, the values for Andrew Newell are 0.257 and 0.034.  (Remember, though, that those are based on very small sample sizes, for statistical purposes!)


    Related posts:

    1. <Assessing The Weekend’s Races: Sprint
    2. <Düsseldorf Sprint Recap
    3. <Andrew Newell: Qualifying vs. Heats


  • Why are the Bathrooms at Ski Trails Labeled “Men” and “Women?”

  • Home for Christmas

    It has been great to spend a couple days at home, relaxing, and kicking up the feet a bit with the family after a long racing block throughout november and december. Unlike last year, the snow in the methow right now is amazing! The first couple of days were great hardwax, cold days- whereas now it is a bit warmer. The good news is, this will probably be pretty similar to next weeks skiing in Maine!

    Skiing with the family-minus Kaley, who couldn’t make it home for Christmas 🙁

    I hear there is a storm warning for the next couple of days in Rumford, where Nationals take place next week, so I may head east with my skis after all!
    I will post again next week with schedule of races and report from the east coast!

  • Skate TT Delayed Until Tuesday

    Due to the storm forecast, we have decided to delay our 5/10 km skate TT until Tuesday morning. We figure that the conditions will be much better on Tuesday. The driving will also be much safer.br /Our tentative plan is to do the TT at Grafton starting at 9:30. We will have a $5. entry fee (4 for Grafton Ponds, 1 for prizes for the winners). Show up by 9 am to tour the course and away we’ll go! br /br /Check back here on Monday afternoon to confirm.br /br /Happy Holidays!br /br /Sverrediv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/4680416899705879324-230585100772754120?l=smsxc.blogspot.com’ alt=” //div

  • Merry X-MAS

    So as you know today was Christmas. This is my favorite holiday, not because of the presents, but because of the time that I really get to spend with the family. With my life of skiing, I am gone a lot and its not often anymore that I get to come home and see my Parents. So when Christmas comes around training doesn’t really take a back seat, but family comes first! Today was a great day. It started with breakfast, my mother made a very tasty quiche. Then we opened presents. My presents were all I needed, with some books, and a couple toys. Then Bryan and I went and met our dad on the mountain and charged up and down the mountain for several hours.

    After, skiing we all went and did something I have done for a couple years now.  The Board of Realtors in steamboat puts together a Community dinner for anyone that wants to come or is in need. It was very cool to be there as a volunteer, because it lets me see people that I normally wont see everyday!  But the best thing about this dinner, is it allows me to give back to the community that has supported me through my young years of skiing!
    Merry Christmas Everyone!

  • Getting Back Into Training After Eating a WHOLE Turkey

  • Merry Christmas

    Christmas day here in Mazama has been a nice day off.     Today is the first day off that Margaret and I have had together since September!  

    At the Basecamp Bridge over the Methow River
    After an early breakfast, we skied from the back door, heading up-valley at a relaxed pace.   Stopping for photos and chatting, but wary of tree-bombs from the heavily laden pines and cottonwoods along the trail; the trees are dropping snow and branches today.

    Margaret stole my “Lake Express” hat.   It definitely fits her better than me.
    The Methow River is just a trickle at this time of year, and sometimes there is no surface water at all.    This year there is noticeable flow; it makes a pretty backdrop with the snow.     The ski trails pass by the North Cascades Basecamp, which was taken over by Steve and Kim Bondi this past autumn – they’re doing a great job there.    From the Basecamp, the trail crosses the river, and offers long kilometers of trails in the narrow valley near the confluence of the Lost River and the Methow.
    Skis leaning against the side of the house.
    We skied for 2 hours and looped back to the house.   Back at home this afternoon, there’s time to relax and get started on a book.    Some phone calls with family and friends.      There’s not as much to do when you live in a quiet, snowy, rural mountain area, but it takes longer to get anything done.   So it works out well.

    I hope you all are having a peaceful day and are finding comfort and joy with family and friends.

  • Merry Christmas

    Christmas day here in Mazama has been a nice day off.     Today is the first day off that Margaret and I have had together since September!  

    At the Basecamp Bridge over the Methow River
    After an early breakfast, we skied from the back door, heading up-valley at a relaxed pace.   Stopping for photos and chatting, but wary of tree-bombs from the heavily laden pines and cottonwoods along the trail; the trees are dropping snow and branches today.

    Margaret stole my “Lake Express” hat.   It definitely fits her better than me.
    The Methow River is just a trickle at this time of year, and sometimes there is no surface water at all.    This year there is noticeable flow; it makes a pretty backdrop with the snow.     The ski trails pass by the North Cascades Basecamp, which was taken over by Steve and Kim Bondi this past autumn – they’re doing a great job there.    From the Basecamp, the trail crosses the river, and offers long kilometers of trails in the narrow valley near the confluence of the Lost River and the Methow.
    Skis leaning against the side of the house.
    We skied for 2 hours and looped back to the house.   Back at home this afternoon, there’s time to relax and get started on a book.    Some phone calls with family and friends.      There’s not as much to do when you live in a quiet, snowy, rural mountain area, but it takes longer to get anything done.   So it works out well.

    I hope you all are having a peaceful day and are finding comfort and joy with family and friends.

  • Merry Christmas!

    Time to get outside & play…

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  • Great Skiing on Mad Tom Notch

    a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRZjLPSDAJI/AAAAAAAAFzw/9JFKfrADQWw/s1600/IMG_0443.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRZjLPSDAJI/AAAAAAAAFzw/9JFKfrADQWw/s400/IMG_0443.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554736235140022418″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRZixb8rLZI/AAAAAAAAFzo/WgZAdBRXmwM/s1600/IMG_0449.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRZixb8rLZI/AAAAAAAAFzo/WgZAdBRXmwM/s400/IMG_0449.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554735791863442834″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRZiUNMZyHI/AAAAAAAAFzg/lSOtCv0KogQ/s1600/IMG_0459.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRZiUNMZyHI/AAAAAAAAFzg/lSOtCv0KogQ/s400/IMG_0459.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554735289686673522″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRZh7lNflDI/AAAAAAAAFzY/hsIn3BvKnjw/s1600/IMG_0465.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRZh7lNflDI/AAAAAAAAFzY/hsIn3BvKnjw/s400/IMG_0465.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554734866636969010″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRZhoTjsQ5I/AAAAAAAAFzQ/uSl4CI8SJMQ/s1600/IMG_0470.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRZhoTjsQ5I/AAAAAAAAFzQ/uSl4CI8SJMQ/s400/IMG_0470.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554734535480722322″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/4680416899705879324-124117651837513667?l=smsxc.blogspot.com’ alt=” //div

  • Classic Intervals at Stratton

    a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTfO6-MYJI/AAAAAAAAFzI/L_4agshzDaQ/s1600/IMG_0412.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 248px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTfO6-MYJI/AAAAAAAAFzI/L_4agshzDaQ/s400/IMG_0412.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554309687895941266″ //aThis morning we had 2 person relays. Each skier raced 4 times, alternating with their partner on the 5 minute loop. br /It was great having Kody S (Colby), Gage (UVM), Austin Cobb (Middlebury), Sophie, Megan and Izzy (Dartmouth) and Parker (Utah) join us for the workout. We had 8 teams hammering away on each other and it was a good workout.br /On Monday we are planning a skate TT. We will do it at Grafton if they complete their loop with the hill, anyone is welcome to join in. We will have a good field (today we had 4 of the top 5 girls from last weekends EC). I will put up details on the blog Sunday afternoon.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTe8QjrpAI/AAAAAAAAFzA/Puv5krABWu0/s1600/IMG_0413.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 226px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTe8QjrpAI/AAAAAAAAFzA/Puv5krABWu0/s400/IMG_0413.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554309367272809474″ //aWaiting for the tag.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTeWr74OgI/AAAAAAAAFy4/gwH0912C-Uk/s1600/IMG_0414.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 329px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTeWr74OgI/AAAAAAAAFy4/gwH0912C-Uk/s400/IMG_0414.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554308721787025922″ //aAustinX2br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTeG8Q2HbI/AAAAAAAAFyw/DIJjeU97-7w/s1600/IMG_0416.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 309px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTeG8Q2HbI/AAAAAAAAFyw/DIJjeU97-7w/s400/IMG_0416.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554308451292028338″ //aSophie and Mac.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTd5jFTItI/AAAAAAAAFyo/z_t8KuxvqjM/s1600/IMG_0419.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 366px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTd5jFTItI/AAAAAAAAFyo/z_t8KuxvqjM/s400/IMG_0419.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554308221194412754″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTdoSn1XzI/AAAAAAAAFyg/61URj4YPug0/s1600/IMG_0422.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTdoSn1XzI/AAAAAAAAFyg/61URj4YPug0/s400/IMG_0422.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554307924718083890″ //aMegan with her compression socks.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTdVc6EQPI/AAAAAAAAFyY/4cFMiwS-Vwc/s1600/IMG_0426.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 312px; height: 400px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTdVc6EQPI/AAAAAAAAFyY/4cFMiwS-Vwc/s400/IMG_0426.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554307601061396722″ //aBridger showing good technique.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTdJTKCbPI/AAAAAAAAFyQ/cSgrdbTFY6U/s1600/IMG_0431.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 278px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTdJTKCbPI/AAAAAAAAFyQ/cSgrdbTFY6U/s400/IMG_0431.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554307392285601010″ //aMackenzie nears her turn around.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTc9EQ2PeI/AAAAAAAAFyI/Z2PEXOIFQhQ/s1600/IMG_0437.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTc9EQ2PeI/AAAAAAAAFyI/Z2PEXOIFQhQ/s400/IMG_0437.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554307182129200610″ //aHallie was fast today.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTcrKliS5I/AAAAAAAAFyA/pbnWADfqQqg/s1600/IMG_0438.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTcrKliS5I/AAAAAAAAFyA/pbnWADfqQqg/s400/IMG_0438.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554306874588941202″ //aGage.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTcZFDQjJI/AAAAAAAAFx4/x4XeF1kfuQQ/s1600/IMG_0439.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTcZFDQjJI/AAAAAAAAFx4/x4XeF1kfuQQ/s400/IMG_0439.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554306563865349266″ //aIssy P looked good after recovering from her cold.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTcAOLbyVI/AAAAAAAAFxw/-PjGOXniUEQ/s1600/IMG_0442.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TRTcAOLbyVI/AAAAAAAAFxw/-PjGOXniUEQ/s400/IMG_0442.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554306136818829650″ //aWe ended the workout with a recovery spin and some strength.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/4680416899705879324-4619337995173473783?l=smsxc.blogspot.com’ alt=” //div

  • Stonegrinding Ski Service: Cyclova XC Racing Service Details

  • Minneapolis

    Back home again!  There’s so much snow here in Minneapolis that the police cars come standard with ski racks.

    What do I do to kick back, relax, and get my mind off of skiing when I’m home?  Why, go skiing of course!  Got out with the Fays, Skolds, Bohns, and Kuzzys for a cruise around Baker.  The majority of the ski was spent hanging out at the barn enjoying refreshments and warm Glühwein.  That’s my kind of workout.

    Prost!

  • Pick Ups At Grafton Ponds

    a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROpdi7CCgI/AAAAAAAAFxo/Yw21cdXSNhI/s1600/IMG_0379.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 178px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROpdi7CCgI/AAAAAAAAFxo/Yw21cdXSNhI/s400/IMG_0379.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553969090533657090″ //aWe had a nice ski at Grafton Ponds this morning. The snowmaking loop is short, but the conditions are excellent. We worked on technique and pure speed. After 3 easier days, we wanted to wake up the bodies before tomorrows intervals.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROpN1VyxRI/AAAAAAAAFxg/UIZ7K6371cE/s1600/IMG_0380.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 326px; height: 400px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROpN1VyxRI/AAAAAAAAFxg/UIZ7K6371cE/s400/IMG_0380.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553968820599833874″ //aClick on any picture to enlarge it.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROpDPIu4DI/AAAAAAAAFxY/SJL7pUkuraU/s1600/IMG_0382.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 342px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROpDPIu4DI/AAAAAAAAFxY/SJL7pUkuraU/s400/IMG_0382.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553968638545813554″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROo1j4gmZI/AAAAAAAAFxQ/KYFkG4QZavI/s1600/IMG_0384.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 188px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROo1j4gmZI/AAAAAAAAFxQ/KYFkG4QZavI/s400/IMG_0384.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553968403596745106″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROooZ8KB2I/AAAAAAAAFxI/fuELAfJhfq4/s1600/IMG_0387.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 126px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROooZ8KB2I/AAAAAAAAFxI/fuELAfJhfq4/s400/IMG_0387.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553968177589389154″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROocSTEEZI/AAAAAAAAFxA/mMF8d6ASO8I/s1600/IMG_0403.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROocSTEEZI/AAAAAAAAFxA/mMF8d6ASO8I/s400/IMG_0403.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553967969379553682″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROoFnmNRkI/AAAAAAAAFw4/1zy_grO7wMU/s1600/IMG_0395.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROoFnmNRkI/AAAAAAAAFw4/1zy_grO7wMU/s400/IMG_0395.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553967579960002114″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROn2hM7JYI/AAAAAAAAFww/SUgjlLk6L6g/s1600/IMG_0406.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROn2hM7JYI/AAAAAAAAFww/SUgjlLk6L6g/s400/IMG_0406.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553967320545305986″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROnoKIiDyI/AAAAAAAAFwo/9kOXdAAYwAQ/s1600/IMG_0408.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROnoKIiDyI/AAAAAAAAFwo/9kOXdAAYwAQ/s400/IMG_0408.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553967073834700578″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROnarpZM7I/AAAAAAAAFwg/-YG48YYAy08/s1600/IMG_0409.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TROnarpZM7I/AAAAAAAAFwg/-YG48YYAy08/s400/IMG_0409.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553966842312733618″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/4680416899705879324-2554053307236114988?l=smsxc.blogspot.com’ alt=” //div

  • Merry Christmas!

    The Statistical Skier is going to take a much needed holiday break to visit the Statistical In-Laws and hopefully do some skiing, but not much statistics.  Regular posting should resume on Monday.

    Enjoy your holidays!

    Related posts:

    1. <Welcome!
    2. <Week In Review: Friday Nov 5th


  • Stonegrinding From Cyclova XC Racing Service – An Introduction…

  • La Clusaz Recap: North American Women

    Just as I did yesterday, let’s take a closer look at the results form Saturday’s World Cup mass start race in La Clusaz, France, this time focusing on the North Americans.  As I discussed yesterday, we’re going to use percent-back difference plots from mass start or pursuit races to evaluate each skier’s race, since the FIS points awarded in mass start races can be a bit misleading.

    Starting off with the Americans, Morgan Arritola:

    Both Arritola and Stephen seemed to have excellent races if you go by their place (18th, 19th) but pretty terrible races using FIS points.  Clearly, the FIS points are misleading in this case.  While the entire range of dots from Saturday’s race (blue) doesn’t seem markedly different than last season, what interests me is the median (red), which was almost 5% points better in that race than what Arritola typically managed last season (or ever, quite frankly).  And if you think that’s a big jump compared to last season:

    Granted, this is looking only at mass starts and pursuits, which happened to coincide with some truly horrible races for Liz Stephen last season.  But Saturday’s race still looks about as good, or slightly better than what she was managing the previous two seasons.

    Men’s post to follow later today…

    Related posts:

    1. <Most Improved: Women’s Distance
    2. <Gällivare Recap: North Americans
    3. <Kuusamo WC Recap: North Americans


  • Kicking off the Season in B.C.

    After a three hour van drive, three plane rides, two nights and a lot of lost sleep, Colin and I finally made it to Vermont yesterday. Traveling during the holidays is always a gamble, but I was hopeful we wouldn’t run into any weather or mechanical delays…unfortunately, that did not happen. Needless to say, it is nice to finally be here and unlike the people in front of us who were trying to fly to London and couldn’t get a flight until December 31st, we were only delayed one day and will be able to enjoy Christmas with family.

    The racing season kicked off for me in the last two weeks. The first weekend we raced in Silver Star British Columbia. I have now been there a handful of times and it never gets old! There is always an abundant amount of snow, good ski conditions, and the beauty of being able to step out of the front door to ski. The first race began with a classic sprint. I felt a bit slow off the line but was able to post a decent time to qualify in the middle of the pack with a 13th place finish. Going into my quarterfinal, I felt good and strong. I put myself in a good position but was not able to sustain my pace up the final hill loosing a place. I ended up 13th overall.

    The next day was a 10/15k skate. We woke up to a foot of soft, new snow. These conditions are some of the toughest to race in. The snow was so soft that the groomers were not able to pack it down before the race began. Instead it made for a very slow long race. While I felt a bit bogged down with all the snow I reminded myself that everyone was battling the same conditions and feelings. It was not my best result, but I hung int here and ended up 13th.

    A couple days later we made our way to Rossland, B.C. about a 3 hour drive. We arrived to quite the opposite of what we found in Silver Star…icey and glazed ski trails. They did a good job of grooming and mixing up the snow to make it skiable. Friday marked the start of a three day mini tour with a skate sprint race. It was a very fast course! I qualified 13th. I was skiing a great quarterfinal round, positioning myself in second place to advance to the semis, when on the last hairpin turn, a girl crashed in front of me and I was unable to get around her without getting tangled up. Bummer! During the time of the tangle-up, the other skiers got around us and our day of racing was cut short.

    With the unfortunate sequence of events the previous day, I was psyched and ready to ski fast the next day in the 5k skate. I went out fast and tried to maintain a high tempo and speed the entire race…5k is a short race! I received some good splits along the way but knew that there were some fast skiers behind me. I ended up 9th… a result I was satisfied with (at least I didn’t end up 13th like several of the previous races!)

    The final day of the tour ended with a 10k pursuit classic race. This means that our combined times from the previous two days were added up to determine our start time for the classic race. I began 1:30 minutes behind the first starter. I bolted out of the start and caught the racer in front of me within the first 1/2 kilometer. At about 2.5 kilometers, I was feeling a bit heavy and bogged down…maybe I was a bit too excited at the start and started too fast? A pack of skiers from behind caught up to me and I tired to hang. I hung for a couple kilometers until a couple of them took off and I as left skiing with one other girl. We skied the entire second lap together. I began to feel a bit better toward the end, so I tired to gap the skier in the last 1/2 kilometer, but was unable to drop her. It came down to a sprint in the last 100 meters. Unfortunately, I did not have the strength in my arms to beat her in the double pole sprint…guess what place I ended up? Yep, 13th! Maybe if I knew I was racing for 12th place I could have mustered up the strength to not get 13th.

    Hopefully, I have put all the 13th place finishes of the year behind me! I am spending Christmas in Vermont before I head to Rumford, Maine for US Nationals late next week. Getting psyched and ready…all for now!

    I hope you have a very Merry Christmas!

  • Kicking off the Season in B.C.

    After a three hour van drive, three plane rides, two nights and a lot of lost sleep, Colin and I finally made it to Vermont yesterday. Traveling during the holidays is always a gamble, but I was hopeful we wouldn’t run into any weather or mechanical delays…unfortunately, that did not happen. Needless to say, it is nice to finally be here and unlike the people in front of us who were trying to fly to London and couldn’t get a flight until December 31st, we were only delayed one day and will be able to enjoy Christmas with family.

    The racing season kicked off for me in the last two weeks. The first weekend we raced in Silver Star British Columbia. I have now been there a handful of times and it never gets old! There is always an abundant amount of snow, good ski conditions, and the beauty of being able to step out of the front door to ski. The first race began with a classic sprint. I felt a bit slow off the line but was able to post a decent time to qualify in the middle of the pack with a 13th place finish. Going into my quarterfinal, I felt good and strong. I put myself in a good position but was not able to sustain my pace up the final hill loosing a place. I ended up 13th overall.

    The next day was a 10/15k skate. We woke up to a foot of soft, new snow. These conditions are some of the toughest to race in. The snow was so soft that the groomers were not able to pack it down before the race began. Instead it made for a very slow long race. While I felt a bit bogged down with all the snow I reminded myself that everyone was battling the same conditions and feelings. It was not my best result, but I hung int here and ended up 13th.

    A couple days later we made our way to Rossland, B.C. about a 3 hour drive. We arrived to quite the opposite of what we found in Silver Star…icey and glazed ski trails. They did a good job of grooming and mixing up the snow to make it skiable. Friday marked the start of a three day mini tour with a skate sprint race. It was a very fast course! I qualified 13th. I was skiing a great quarterfinal round, positioning myself in second place to advance to the semis, when on the last hairpin turn, a girl crashed in front of me and I was unable to get around her without getting tangled up. Bummer! During the time of the tangle-up, the other skiers got around us and our day of racing was cut short.

    With the unfortunate sequence of events the previous day, I was psyched and ready to ski fast the next day in the 5k skate. I went out fast and tried to maintain a high tempo and speed the entire race…5k is a short race! I received some good splits along the way but knew that there were some fast skiers behind me. I ended up 9th… a result I was satisfied with (at least I didn’t end up 13th like several of the previous races!)

    The final day of the tour ended with a 10k pursuit classic race. This means that our combined times from the previous two days were added up to determine our start time for the classic race. I began 1:30 minutes behind the first starter. I bolted out of the start and caught the racer in front of me within the first 1/2 kilometer. At about 2.5 kilometers, I was feeling a bit heavy and bogged down…maybe I was a bit too excited at the start and started too fast? A pack of skiers from behind caught up to me and I tired to hang. I hung for a couple kilometers until a couple of them took off and I as left skiing with one other girl. We skied the entire second lap together. I began to feel a bit better toward the end, so I tired to gap the skier in the last 1/2 kilometer, but was unable to drop her. It came down to a sprint in the last 100 meters. Unfortunately, I did not have the strength in my arms to beat her in the double pole sprint…guess what place I ended up? Yep, 13th! Maybe if I knew I was racing for 12th place I could have mustered up the strength to not get 13th.

    Hopefully, I have put all the 13th place finishes of the year behind me! I am spending Christmas in Vermont before I head to Rumford, Maine for US Nationals late next week. Getting psyched and ready…all for now!

    I hope you have a very Merry Christmas!

  • Kicking off the Season in B.C.

    After a three hour van drive, three plane rides, two nights and a lot of lost sleep, Colin and I finally made it to Vermont yesterday. Traveling during the holidays is always a gamble, but I was hopeful we wouldn’t run into any weather or mechanical delays…unfortunately, that did not happen. Needless to say, it is nice to finally be here and unlike the people in front of us who were trying to fly to London and couldn’t get a flight until December 31st, we were only delayed one day and will be able to enjoy Christmas with family.

    The racing season kicked off for me in the last two weeks. The first weekend we raced in Silver Star British Columbia. I have now been there a handful of times and it never gets old! There is always an abundant amount of snow, good ski conditions, and the beauty of being able to step out of the front door to ski. The first race began with a classic sprint. I felt a bit slow off the line but was able to post a decent time to qualify in the middle of the pack with a 13th place finish. Going into my quarterfinal, I felt good and strong. I put myself in a good position but was not able to sustain my pace up the final hill loosing a place. I ended up 13th overall.

    The next day was a 10/15k skate. We woke up to a foot of soft, new snow. These conditions are some of the toughest to race in. The snow was so soft that the groomers were not able to pack it down before the race began. Instead it made for a very slow long race. While I felt a bit bogged down with all the snow I reminded myself that everyone was battling the same conditions and feelings. It was not my best result, but I hung int here and ended up 13th.

    A couple days later we made our way to Rossland, B.C. about a 3 hour drive. We arrived to quite the opposite of what we found in Silver Star…icey and glazed ski trails. They did a good job of grooming and mixing up the snow to make it skiable. Friday marked the start of a three day mini tour with a skate sprint race. It was a very fast course! I qualified 13th. I was skiing a great quarterfinal round, positioning myself in second place to advance to the semis, when on the last hairpin turn, a girl crashed in front of me and I was unable to get around her without getting tangled up. Bummer! During the time of the tangle-up, the other skiers got around us and our day of racing was cut short.

    With the unfortunate sequence of events the previous day, I was psyched and ready to ski fast the next day in the 5k skate. I went out fast and tried to maintain a high tempo and speed the entire race…5k is a short race! I received some good splits along the way but knew that there were some fast skiers behind me. I ended up 9th… a result I was satisfied with (at least I didn’t end up 13th like several of the previous races!)

    The final day of the tour ended with a 10k pursuit classic race. This means that our combined times from the previous two days were added up to determine our start time for the classic race. I began 1:30 minutes behind the first starter. I bolted out of the start and caught the racer in front of me within the first 1/2 kilometer. At about 2.5 kilometers, I was feeling a bit heavy and bogged down…maybe I was a bit too excited at the start and started too fast? A pack of skiers from behind caught up to me and I tired to hang. I hung for a couple kilometers until a couple of them took off and I as left skiing with one other girl. We skied the entire second lap together. I began to feel a bit better toward the end, so I tired to gap the skier in the last 1/2 kilometer, but was unable to drop her. It came down to a sprint in the last 100 meters. Unfortunately, I did not have the strength in my arms to beat her in the double pole sprint…guess what place I ended up? Yep, 13th! Maybe if I knew I was racing for 12th place I could have mustered up the strength to not get 13th.

    Hopefully, I have put all the 13th place finishes of the year behind me! I am spending Christmas in Vermont before I head to Rumford, Maine for US Nationals late next week. Getting psyched and ready…all for now!

    I hope you have a very Merry Christmas!