Category: XCFeeds

A

div style=”text-align: center;”br //divdiv style=”text-align: center;”span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold; “span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-size:large;”IT’S TIME TO SKI!!/span/spanbr //divdiv style=”text-align: center;”span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold;”br //span/diva onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8jHuPcsaI/AAAAAAAAAdk/tLk9u-bd5SM/s1600/DSCN0622.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8jHuPcsaI/AAAAAAAAAdk/tLk9u-bd5SM/s320/DSCN0622.JPG” border=”0″ alt=”” id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534681082640511394″ //abr /div style=”text-align: left;”The past two days APU has been making the 1 hr drive up to Hatchers Pass for some amazing skiing! Tracks have been great, the temperatures low, and spirits high. Both skate and classic tracks are exceptional considering the couple of inches of snow pack on the road. Surprisingly enough, no rocks or pavement are showing (with exception to one corner). br //divdivdiv style=”text-align: center;”div style=”text-align: left;”br //divspan class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold;”div style=”text-align: center;”br //divspan class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: normal; “a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8i9s-FcBI/AAAAAAAAAdc/qhSN-dIleaE/s1600/DSCN0617.JPG”img src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8i9s-FcBI/AAAAAAAAAdc/qhSN-dIleaE/s320/DSCN0617.JPG” border=”0″ alt=”” id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534680910500556818″ style=”display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 240px; height: 320px; ” //a/spanPerfect tracks!/spanbr //divdiv style=”text-align: center;”span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold;”br //span/diva onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8iwR2VnSI/AAAAAAAAAdM/5r6qaIxO6is/s1600/DSCN0613.JPG”img src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8iwR2VnSI/AAAAAAAAAdM/5r6qaIxO6is/s320/DSCN0613.JPG” border=”0″ alt=”” id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534680679882005794″ style=”display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 240px; height: 320px; ” //adiv style=”text-align: center;”span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold; “Dark and cold- Gretta Anderson is still pumped to get started!/spanbr //divdiv style=”text-align: center;”span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold;”br //span/diva onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8ii6_VOeI/AAAAAAAAAc8/4VD-WTz2cOM/s1600/DSC06038.JPG”img src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8ii6_VOeI/AAAAAAAAAc8/4VD-WTz2cOM/s320/DSC06038.JPG” border=”0″ alt=”” id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534680450407414242″ style=”display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 240px; height: 320px; ” //adiv style=”text-align: center;”span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold; “Lots of car and people traffic on the trails- have to watch out :)/spanbr //divdivdivbr //divdivOur first day up there, all the town teams were out there, so I got to ski some laps with my brother who is now skiing for University of Alaska- fun, fun!!/divdivbr //diva onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8jdZ1Jc7I/AAAAAAAAAd0/BgpK7Kiwh7k/s1600/1.jpg”img src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8jdZ1Jc7I/AAAAAAAAAd0/BgpK7Kiwh7k/s320/1.jpg” border=”0″ alt=”” id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534681455118611378″ style=”display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 239px; ” //adiv /diva onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8ipiK333I/AAAAAAAAAdE/HnJZzWuVj1E/s1600/DSC06043.JPG”img src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8ipiK333I/AAAAAAAAAdE/HnJZzWuVj1E/s320/DSC06043.JPG” border=”0″ alt=”” id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534680564004020082″ style=”display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 240px; ” //adivNothing like early season skiing in Alaska. Hopefully the snow hits town soon so we can be skiing here.!br //divdivdiv style=”text-align: left;”br //diva onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8jXEn4CTI/AAAAAAAAAds/L6ymmzF0qWs/s1600/DSCN0626.JPG”img src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8jXEn4CTI/AAAAAAAAAds/L6ymmzF0qWs/s320/DSCN0626.JPG” border=”0″ alt=”” id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534681346346584370″ style=”display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 240px; height: 320px; ” //adiv style=”text-align: center;”span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold;”Morgan and I high on Alaskan Life/span/divdiv style=”text-align: center;”span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold;”br //span/diva onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8i2MNsdAI/AAAAAAAAAdU/oKR-tLQsjUk/s1600/DSCN0615.JPG”img src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8i2MNsdAI/AAAAAAAAAdU/oKR-tLQsjUk/s320/DSCN0615.JPG” border=”0″ alt=”” id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534680781448573954″ style=”display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 168px; ” //adiv style=”text-align: center;”span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold; “Gretta Anderson and I at the start of the cold morning/span/divdivbr //divdivYesterday was Halloween, so a couple of us got dressed up for our OD… FUN FUN!/divdiv style=”text-align: left;”br //diva onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8kDx6U-OI/AAAAAAAAAeM/Y487knHtdcs/s1600/halloween+5.jpg”img src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8kDx6U-OI/AAAAAAAAAeM/Y487knHtdcs/s320/halloween+5.jpg” border=”0″ alt=”” id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534682114417817826″ style=”display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 240px; ” //adiv style=”text-align: center;”span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold;”2.5 hr. Halloween Ski- ladies working hard but still having fun!/span/divdiv style=”text-align: center;”span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold;”br //span/divdiv style=”text-align: center;”span class=”Apple-style-span” style=”font-weight: bold;”Below: Morgan, Holly, me, Kikkan and Katie getting after it :)/span/divdiva onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8jr0W-qKI/AAAAAAAAAd8/DL5GtnW-Voo/s1600/halloween+4.jpg”img src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_l4L_01UOs1s/TM8jr0W-qKI/AAAAAAAAAd8/DL5GtnW-Voo/s320/halloween+4.jpg” border=”0″ alt=”” id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534681702758000802″ style=”display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 213px; ” //a/div/div/div/divdiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2018521813175454198-2675601497111829813?l=sadiebjornsen.blogspot.com’ alt=” //div

a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9fvMg5Z-I/AAAAAAAAFFA/TObDyia4XDY/s1600/DSC_0130.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 284px; height: 400px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9fvMg5Z-I/AAAAAAAAFFA/TObDyia4XDY/s400/DSC_0130.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534747731479324642″ //abr /We are simulating the race schedule at Sr. Nationals this week so we started with a classic sprint. We skied two preliminary rounds and then 2 heats. The goal was to practice racing individually and in a group. It was cold (32 degrees), but dry and the event went off well. Roller ski speeds differ greatly so we did not get too worked up about the fastest time, but we were interested in seeing how each skier did over the four races. Having a slow first race means inadequate warm up, having one race noticably slower than the others could mean a mental lapse, etc..br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9cLM_m5GI/AAAAAAAAFEg/jBnfIuYccco/s1600/DSC_0141.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9cLM_m5GI/AAAAAAAAFEg/jBnfIuYccco/s400/DSC_0141.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534743814597960802″ //aIssy looking good.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9bn0PdWrI/AAAAAAAAFEY/cCG5feF2mzU/s1600/DSC_0148.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9bn0PdWrI/AAAAAAAAFEY/cCG5feF2mzU/s400/DSC_0148.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534743206658136754″ //aCoach Boobar gives some last minute advice.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9bIxPWhSI/AAAAAAAAFEQ/MtAl8GMEzqE/s1600/DSC_0169.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 345px; height: 400px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9bIxPWhSI/AAAAAAAAFEQ/MtAl8GMEzqE/s400/DSC_0169.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534742673276437794″ //aTess is showing some good improvement.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9aDBcvi5I/AAAAAAAAFEI/Mdwn29cOI2E/s1600/DSC_0172.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9aDBcvi5I/AAAAAAAAFEI/Mdwn29cOI2E/s400/DSC_0172.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534741475036728210″ //aAfter the two preliminary rounds, we ran two heats. But..there was a catch.. we ran the heats Australian Pursuit style with the slowest skiers getting a head start. Brooke seized her opportunity to win and skied 13 seconds faster than she had in the prelims!br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9Zl5n84hI/AAAAAAAAFEA/BSaT7LiSS8U/s1600/DSC_0174.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9Zl5n84hI/AAAAAAAAFEA/BSaT7LiSS8U/s400/DSC_0174.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534740974720049682″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9ZDalcH8I/AAAAAAAAFD4/xdOAKOplhCM/s1600/DSC_0192.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9ZDalcH8I/AAAAAAAAFD4/xdOAKOplhCM/s400/DSC_0192.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534740382272462786″ //aPoppet checks out the times while the human calculator does his work.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9YMIH-tfI/AAAAAAAAFDw/bY0_MdtxRgU/s1600/DSC_0184.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9YMIH-tfI/AAAAAAAAFDw/bY0_MdtxRgU/s400/DSC_0184.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534739432424257010″ //aBridger is working on base training this week (after his pneumonia). He used the opportunity to cheer his teammates.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9Xu7SDAKI/AAAAAAAAFDo/u7T7kuGLmg0/s1600/DSC_0187.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9Xu7SDAKI/AAAAAAAAFDo/u7T7kuGLmg0/s400/DSC_0187.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534738930760614050″ //aMac hammers the top of the hill.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9XLw8gH7I/AAAAAAAAFDg/-feDY7Otlc0/s1600/DSC_0198.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9XLw8gH7I/AAAAAAAAFDg/-feDY7Otlc0/s400/DSC_0198.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534738326690471858″ //aStaying hydrated is important.br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9WtWXC6WI/AAAAAAAAFDY/EfKrVbuUdp0/s1600/DSC_0203.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9WtWXC6WI/AAAAAAAAFDY/EfKrVbuUdp0/s400/DSC_0203.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534737804157970786″ //aIs Poppet howling?br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9WGJLZsQI/AAAAAAAAFDQ/6-qqr8odLFM/s1600/DSC_0214.JPG”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9WGJLZsQI/AAAAAAAAFDQ/6-qqr8odLFM/s400/DSC_0214.JPG” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534737130604572930″ //aMac and Murph lead the boys towards the end of the final sprint.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/4680416899705879324-8916189765589085759?l=smsxc.blogspot.com’ alt=” //div

I am proud to announce that Northern Fruit Company will continue as my financial sponsor for the 2010-2011 racing season! I feel honored to represent a company that promotes health and encourages community development as much as Northern. The Northern Fruit Co. is located in Wenatchee, Washington, and is committed to providing customers with the highest quality of fresh fruit. At Northern they

I am proud to announce that Northern Fruit Company will continue as my financial sponsor for the 2010-2011 racing season! I feel honored to represent a company that promotes health and encourages community development as much as Northern. The Northern Fruit Co. is located in Wenatchee, Washington, and is committed to providing customers with the highest quality of fresh fruit. At Northern they

I am proud to announce that Northern Fruit Company will continue as my financial sponsor for the 2010-2011 racing season! I feel honored to represent a company that promotes health and encourages community development as much as Northern. The Northern Fruit Co. is located in Wenatchee, Washington, and is committed to providing customers with the highest quality of fresh fruit. At Northern they

I am proud to announce that Northern Fruit Company will continue as my financial sponsor for the 2010-2011 racing season! I feel honored to represent a company that promotes health and encourages community development as much as Northern. The Northern Fruit Co. is located in Wenatchee, Washington, and is committed to providing customers with the highest quality of fresh fruit. At Northern they

I am proud to announce that Northern Fruit Company will continue as my financial sponsor for the 2010-2011 racing season! I feel honored to represent a company that promotes health and encourages community development as much as Northern. The Northern Fruit Co. is located in Wenatchee, Washington, and is committed to providing customers with the highest quality of fresh fruit. At Northern they

a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9U-1sbegI/AAAAAAAAFDA/l9K8h7jrDUo/s1600/150029_10150303485940323_727840322_15110294_308429_n.jpg”img style=”display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 181px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2SCM3lmKm8/TM9U-1sbegI/AAAAAAAAFDA/l9K8h7jrDUo/s400/150029_10150303485940323_727840322_15110294_308429_n.jpg” border=”0″ alt=””id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5534735905603680770″ //abr /br /Hello Everybody!br / br /Dartmouth is fantastic. I’m having loads of fun! I think I did a good job picking my classes, they’re really interesting but they’re not that hard! The team is awesome, we have fun team dinners every Tuesday and I’m becoming a pro at the communal shower.br /I’m living in the furthest dorm from the middle of campus, but I like it a lot. It’s really quiet and Annie Hart is right across the hall from me so we’re pretty much roommates.br /Friday night is homecoming; it should be lots of fun. Two and half hours of running 114 laps around the bonfire!br /Last weekend we did the Moosilauke mountain run and the entire top half was covered in snow, it was pretty epic. I got to see Cobby! I miss all of you guys, but I’ll see you on Saturday at States!div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/4680416899705879324-3917422471951774979?l=smsxc.blogspot.com’ alt=” //div

This is part one in a short series of season preview posts on USST athletes in which I’ll review each skier’s results to date and make some guesses about how they’ll fare in the upcoming season.  I don’t have any special insight into the future beyond my database of past race results, and I certainly am not using some fancy predictive model.  While I’ll likely support a fair bit of my guesses with data of some form, I obviously wouldn’t take any of my predictions to Vegas with you.  And of course, my guesses are just me being a cynical realist, not necessarily an expression of what I’d like to happen.

I’m putting Morgan Arritola and Liz Stephen into a single post since they’ve had quite similar results so far in their careers and they both focus mostly on distance events.  Let’s start off with a quick look at their results so far:

The colors are only a rough classification of races into major international (WC, OWG and WSC) other international (OPA, WJC, U23 etc.) and domestic (SuperTour, Nationals, FIS races, etc.).  Not all of the “domestic” races necessarily took place in the US, but you get my drift.

As you can see, their results have been pretty similar, at least in terms of FIS points.  Arritola probably had the better season last year, mostly due to a few slightly better races and fewer really slow races.  Stephen has mentioned in interviews I believe being somewhat overtrained (or something) which led to some disappointing results last year.  Presumably, she’ll adjust her training to address that this year.

Both skiers have basically topped out at around 50 FIS points, the lone exception being Stephens’ 3rd place finish at U23s a few years ago.  A little more worrying is that both seem to have stalled a bit over the past 2-3 seasons, in terms of improving.

It goes without saying that I don’t really know anything about their training, health, etc.  So, if I want to say something about how these two will fare this coming season I’m limited to examining data on how other skiers have fared with similar results.

As a simple example, we can take all the women who’s best result in a season is between 50-60 FIS points and then look at what their best result was the next season.  That will give us some sense of the range we can expect.  The following plot shows the results, by age:

Each dot is the best result (by FIS points) of a woman who’s previous season best race was between 50-60 FIS points.  The red lines represent the 20%, 50% (i.e. median) and 80% quantiles.  I plotted these by age, because as you can see, once you get past the age of 30 (like me!) you see some strong age dependent effects.  If you’re north of 30 and your best race was 50-60 FIS points, it’s unlikely you’re going to see much improvement.

Otherwise, we see that (unsurprisingly) the median result is to have your best race be basically at the same level as the previous year, between 50-60 FIS points.  There might be slightly more athletes that see an improvement between ages 20-25 than between 25-30, but it’s a very small difference.

Connecting all this back to a prediction for each skier’s best race this coming season by FIS points is tricky, since as I’ve discussed before there’s a huge discrepancy between mass start/pursuit races and interval start races.  If we ignore that for a moment, I’d say we’re most likely to see a modest improvement by both Arritola and Stephen this year, with both of them having at least 1-2 races closer to 40 FIS points.  Based on past experience (i.e. the data) it would be pretty unusual (but not impossible) for either of them to start pulling off sub-20 point races.

One interesting factoid I’ll point out is that of the 8 times these two ladies have scored World Cup points (top 30) so far, 7 of those races were mass start or pursuit races.

FIS point predictions are pretty weak, though, and certainly not very exciting.  So here’s my wild-ass-guess: Arritola and Stephen will continue their trend of skiing at about the same level.  Both will score World Cup points this season, but neither will break into the top 20.  All WC points they score will be in pursuits (which favors skating) and freestyle mass start races.

Ok, so that probably wasn’t a very bold set of predictions, but I can’t help it.  I’m a cautious guy.

Related posts:

1. <Skiing Performance and Age
2. <Most Improved: Men’s Distance
3. <Most Improved: Women’s Distance

As some of you may know, my boyfriend and fellow National Team member Zach Hall is gluten intolerant. For those who don’t know, gluten intolerance is, very basically, an inability to break down the protein gluten (found in rye, wheat and barley). Zach’s intolerance is thankfully not celiac disease, which is the same general idea, except instead of having an upset stomach and GI issues, celiac sufferers can become violently ill when they eat gluten in any amount.

Zach has been able to manage his intolerance with only a few issues (mostly while on the road, when language barriers can present a problem), and since going gluten-free his junior year of college, he’s seen a steady improvement in his results. Recently, there’s been a lot of news about other sports teams going gluten or wheat-free (namely the Garmin Slipstream Cycling Team, featured recently in Men’s Journal). Since Zach and I share many meals anyway, I decided to try it while at our Utah camp. What I found was that my legs felt lighter and less tired, I was recovering faster, and I lost a couple pounds (putting me at my race weight in October, something I’ve never been able to accomplish). So I’ve decided to go gluten free for the season and see how things go.

Like Zach, I expect to encounter some issues, especially while traveling. However, since it is not an allergy that keeps me from eating wheat and gluten, it will be less worry-some for me. That’s not to say that I won’t be trying to keep this diet 100%. Luckily one of my sponsors, PowerBar, has several wheat and gluten free products that range from recovery bars to drink mixes to snack-type bars. I’ve already ordered several boxes to take with me to Europe. (Note: if you have issue with oats, many of these products will not be suitable for you. Check out celiac disease and oats here.)

PowerBar stash! The drink mix label was a casualty of travel, but what’s inside is the Endurance Beverage in Lemon-Lime.

I’ll be keeping close tabs on how I feel and what I eat to make sure I’m getting enough of the right nutrients, but I’m confident in my decision. Hopefully it will yield the results on the ski course that I am looking for!

A

It was a very happy halloween up at Hatcher Pass this morning! HBrooks, Bjornsenator, Kikkanimal, Smythski and Ronski. Goofy girls psyched to have just done a 2.5hr SKI!Thanks to Mark for the great grooming (An H.Brooks pic from yesterday).The “Thing with Wings” Randall flying on her 1 pole drill. We all can’t wait to fly, really. The racing season is less than a month away. Bring it on!

It was a very happy halloween up at Hatcher Pass this morning! HBrooks, Bjornsenator, Kikkanimal, Smythski and Ronski. Goofy girls psyched to have just done a 2.5hr SKI!Thanks to Mark for the great grooming (An H.Brooks pic from yesterday).The “Thing with Wings” Randall flying on her 1 pole drill. We all can’t wait to fly, really. The racing season is less than a month away. Bring it on!