FasterSkier

Category: XCFeeds

A collection of live feeds from cross-country ski blogs around the web.

  • Kershaw’s Volatility

    A regular reader asked me over the weekend to comment on Devon Kershaw’s less than stellar opening race of the season. Specifically, he asked:

     Kershaw seems like he’s one of the most volatile skiers on the WC circuit. Is this true?

    The question of how consistent (or not) various skiers are comes up fairly regularly. I think I’ve done posts on a similar topic looking at Kris Freeman. I confess that I’ve become a bit jaded on this question, since I have generally come to believe that all skiers are less consistent than people tend to think. I think we all have a general tendency to overestimate how consistent ski racers are.

    It’s still an interesting question, though. I’m going to side-step it slightly and address a related concept, variability. So the following plot shows how variable Kershaw’s results have been for each season, relative to the men’s WC field. I’ve filtered this down so as to only use skiers with a reasonable number of starts per season.

    There are three panels, one for each potential performance measure. The y axis measures how variable a skier’s results were over the course of that season. The Rank panel isn’t very useful, since that performance measure is too dependent on the size of the field. So instead let’s just focus on FIS points and MPB (percent behind the median skier). The blue corresponds to Kershaw while the black line shows the ‘typical’ level of variability for the men’s WC field, with the shaded areas giving a sense of the distribution across skiers.

    Both FIS points and MPB seem to suggest that last season was an unpredictable one for Kershaw. Recall that both he and Harvey tired noticeably toward the end of the season, which accounts for much of the variability. Before then, though, both measures generally suggest a skier who’s results are as variable, or less, than average.

    Of course, variability isn’t necessarily the same as volatility. But now we’re delving into murkier territory. What exactly are volatile results? Consider three skiers with the following sequences of FIS points:

    1. 1.01, 5.23, 1.01
    2. 20.11, 25.64, 19.44
    3. 10.12, 52.33, 11.22
    Which of those sequences is more ‘volatile’? Maybe we’d argue for (3), but proportionally it’s about the same as (1). Is a change of 5 FIS points the same whether you’re starting at the top of the pack or from the middle? Is doubling your FIS points an equivalent change regardless of whether you’re starting at the top or near the middle?
    I don’t have any easy answers for this, but it’s something to think about. I’ll ponder some more specific tools for measuring volatility and get back to you…

    Related posts:

    1. <Variability In World Cup Ski Racers
    2. <Week In Review: Friday Oct 8th
    3. <Biathlon and Cross Country Volatility Trends


  • First race of the 2011/2012 season! 15km skate race in…

  • First race of the 2011/2012 season! 15km skate race in…

  • First race of the 2011/2012 season! 15km skate race in…

  • First race of the 2011/2012 season! 15km skate race in…

  • Artic Commando 5km

    Tomorrow we hit the road out West to ski on snow and start the race season. Yesterday Caitlin and I went out to support St Paul Central High School and their nordic team fundraiser the Artic Comando 5k. Last year the race was held in several inches of snow, this year the high for the day reached 63F.

    2 mile and 5k racers on the line

    The race course follows the new FIS (International Ski Federation) Homologation standards and is a hard course. People have called the midwest flat, but would disagree after a go at this 5km loop. I am feeling great, yet my winning time on the course was just under 19 minutes.

    Fit and ready to go. The first race of the season is on snow and 10 days away.

  • Artic Commando 5km

    Tomorrow we hit the road out West to ski on snow and start the race season. Yesterday Caitlin and I went out to support St Paul Central High School and their nordic team fundraiser the Artic Comando 5k. Last year the race was held in several inches of snow, this year the high for the day reached 63F.

    2 mile and 5k racers on the line

    The race course follows the new FIS (International Ski Federation) Homologation standards and is a hard course. People have called the midwest flat, but would disagree after a go at this 5km loop. I am feeling great, yet my winning time on the course was just under 19 minutes.

    Fit and ready to go. The first race of the season is on snow and 10 days away.

  • Arctic Commando 5km

    Tomorrow we hit the road out West to ski on snow and start the race season. Yesterday Caitlin and I went out to support St Paul Central High School and their nordic team fundraiser the Arctic Comando 5k. Last year the race was held in several inches of snow, this year the high for the day reached 63F.

    2 mile and 5k racers on the line

    The race course follows the new FIS (International Ski Federation) Homologation standards and is a hard course. People have called the midwest flat, but would disagree after a go at this 5km loop. I am feeling great, yet my winning time on the course was just under 19 minutes.

    Fit and ready to go. The first race of the season is on snow and 10 days away.

  • One Final Running Race

    Tomorrow we hit the road out West to ski on snow and start the race season. Yesterday Caitlin and I went out to support St Paul Central High School and their nordic team fundraiser the Arctic Comando 5k. Last year the race was held in several inches of snow, this year the high for the day reached 63F.

    2 mile and 5k racers on the line

    The race course follows the new FIS (International Ski Federation) Homologation standards and is a hard course. People have called the midwest flat, but would disagree after a go at this 5km loop. I am feeling great, yet my winning time on the course was just under 19 minutes.

    Fit and ready to go. The first race of the season is on snow and 10 days away.

  • One Final Running Race

    Tomorrow we hit the road out West to ski on snow and start the race season. Yesterday Caitlin and I went out to support St Paul Central High School and their nordic team fundraiser the Artic Comando 5k. Last year the race was held in several inches of snow, this year the high for the day reached 63F.

    2 mile and 5k racers on the line

    The race course follows the new FIS (International Ski Federation) Homologation standards and is a hard course. People have called the midwest flat, but would disagree after a go at this 5km loop. I am feeling great, yet my winning time on the course was just under 19 minutes.

    Fit and ready to go. The first race of the season is on snow and 10 days away.

  • One Final Running Race

    Tomorrow we hit the road out West to ski on snow and start the race season. Yesterday Caitlin and I went out to support St Paul Central High School and their nordic team fundraiser the Artic Comando 5k. Last year the race was held in several inches of snow, this year the high for the day reached 63F.

    2 mile and 5k racers on the line

    The race course follows the new FIS (International Ski Federation) Homologation standards and is a hard course. People have called the midwest flat, but would disagree after a go at this 5km loop. I am feeling great, yet my winning time on the course was just under 19 minutes.

    Fit and ready to go. The first race of the season is on snow and 10 days away.

  • Room clean timelapse

    This is Alex Devon and I packing up our room on our way to the Bruksvallarna race. This is my life for the next 5 months.

  • Room clean timelapse

    This is Alex Devon and I packing up our room on our way to the Bruksvallarna race. This is my life for the next 5 months.

  • Room clean timelapse

    This is Alex Devon and I packing up our room on our way to the Bruksvallarna race. This is my life for the next 5 months.

  • Tim Reynolds Racing in Finland

    Tim Reynolds of Bristol, Vermont and GMVS alum is currently racing in Muonio, Finland.  He led the a small American contingent racing with the Green Racing Project from Craftsbury.  Here is a link to an article about the race from fasterskier.

    Time will be back in Vermont in the beginning of December where he will be recovering from this racing trip and helping out with our team and the newly formed Mad River Nordic Club.

    Good job Tim we’re cheering for you!

  • Tim Reynolds Racing in Finland

    Tim Reynolds of Bristol, Vermont and GMVS alum is currently racing in Muonio, Finland.  He led the a small American contingent racing with the Green Racing Project from Craftsbury.  Here is a link to an article about the race from fasterskier.

    Time will be back in Vermont in the beginning of December where he will be recovering from this racing trip and helping out with our team and the newly formed Mad River Nordic Club.

    Good job Tim we’re cheering for you!

  • Tim Reynolds Racing in Finland

    Tim Reynolds of Bristol, Vermont and GMVS alum is currently racing in Muonio, Finland.  He led the a small American contingent racing with the Green Racing Project from Craftsbury.  Here is a link to an article about the race from fasterskier.

    Time will be back in Vermont in the beginning of December where he will be recovering from this racing trip and helping out with our team and the newly formed Mad River Nordic Club.

    Good job Tim we’re cheering for you!

  • Skiing Celebration of "Tri-Eleven Day"

    111 kms on 11/11/11.

  • The Marathon Cup (part I)

    The upcoming World Cup season is going to be unusual in that it will feature neither a World Championships nor an Olympic Games. Already, commentators and athletes alike are looking to the Tour de Ski as the high point of the season. The TdS will likely be exciting, but it comes too early to serve as the true peak of the winter’s racing. Likewise, the season Finale – as usual, four races in in

  • The Marathon Cup (part I)

    The upcoming World Cup season is going to be unusual in that it will feature neither a World Championships nor an Olympic Games. Already, commentators and athletes alike are looking to the Tour de Ski as the high point of the season. The TdS will likely be exciting, but it comes too early to serve as the true peak of the winter’s racing. What’s more, this season lacks the finale of the last few